Gonzaga vs. Virginia: 2020-21 college basketball game preview, TV schedule

The top-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs will battle the preseason ACC favorites in the Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday afternoon.

TV schedule: Saturday, December 26, 4:00 pm ET. CBS

Arena: Dickes Arena in Fort Worth, Texas

After both Gonzaga and Virginia had marquee December matchups canceled due to COVID-19, the two nationally-ranked programs will meet in a recently-scheduled showdown in the depths of Texas – with one sporting one of the nation’s best offenses, and the other with one of basketball’s premier defenses.

Both squads enter the tilt having recently come off pauses due to COVID-19 protocol.  Gonzaga (6-0) has been back in action longer after being forced to pause shortly after their Dec. 2 win over West Virginia, usurping a top-five Iowa squad in South Dakota by double-digits before recording back-to-back blowout wins over Northwestern State on Dec. 21 and 22.  Their two wins over NSU featured five different double-digit scorers and saw the Zags shoot a blistering 56.6% from the floor.

There is not much that needs to be said about the top-ranked Zags that is not already known.  They feature some of the most talented players in all of college basketball, including the sensational frontcourt tandem of Corey Kispert (20.8 ppg) and Drew Timme (20.3 ppg), as well as freshman star Jalen Suggs (16.3).  Joey Ayayi (9.7) and Andrew Nembhard (9.7) have both been instrumental to Gonzaga’s success, as well.

No team in college basketball holds the resume of wins that Gonzaga holds, which includes Kansas, West Virginia, and Iowa – and their statistics have been nothing short of insane.  Despite ranking in the mid-100s in numerous categories (including 3P% offensively and defensively, as well as 2P% defensively), the Zags maintain the second-best adjusted offense efficiency and the fourteenth-best defensive efficiency.  Their success largely comes from inside, where they rank fourth in Div. I in 2P% (64.1%), which correlates with their seventh-best effective FG% mark (60.2%).

Gonzaga’s ability to play Virginia is in large part due to the cancellation of the Gonzaga-Baylor showdown a few weeks ago, which would have pit the Bulldogs against one of the best defenses in the country – but now, they will face an even statistically better defense in the Cavaliers.

Virginia (4-1) enters this showdown off a substantially long break that stretched from Dec. 4 to the 22nd.  Their last game before the break – a home overtime win over a middle-of-the-pack MAC group in Kent State – was a less than ideal showing for a UVA squad that already had a loss to San Francisco under its belt, and has not lived up to its No. 4 preseason ranking.

Because of their pause, the Wahoos were unable to play two highly anticipated games against Michigan State and Villanova, but Tony Bennett’s crew did pick up a convincing 36-point win over William & Mary to resume their season.

The Cavaliers had a solid game out of Trey Murphy III, who recorded 15 points (6-9 FG, 3-6 3PT) to go with four rebounds and three assists – a good sign for a Virginia squad that has struggled to get productivity from its guards.

Like Gonzaga, Virginia’s best offense has come from its post players.  Marquette transfer Sam Hauser has transitioned to his new home well thus far, averaging a team-best 13.4 points per game, whereas Jay Huff has continued his dominance inside, averaging 11.6 ppg (66.7% FG) and a team-high 6.2 rebounds – as well as a team-best 13 rebounds.  The guard play, however, has been lackluster – both Kihei Clark (10.8 to 7.6) and Tomas Woldetensae (6.5 to 5.6) have seen their scoring averages drop from last season.

This game will be a clashing of two completely different speeds.  Again, the Zags feature one of the best offenses in all of college basketball – and they hold the sixth-fastest adjusted tempo in the game.  The Cavaliers, meanwhile, maintain an even better-adjusted efficiency than Gonzaga – and are the slowest team in Div. I by way of adjusted tempo, coming in at 357th.

Because of their frontcourt – and again, much like Gonzaga – they thrive on an inside game, ranking 16th in 2P% (58.5%) and 10th in FT% (80.8%).  Keeping in mind that the level of competition thus far has been notably different, both offenses have been efficient – UVA scores 1.07 points per possession, while Gonzaga averages 1.06 – but Virginia’s defense has been better, holding teams to 0.78 points per possession to Gonzaga’s 0.87.

Again, this showdown features two teams of completely different styles and tempos, both squads are nationally ranked, and it will be held in a neutral location – in just the fourth-ever meeting between the two programs.  Both teams feature proven frontcourts – but where Gonzaga holds the edge is in their backcourt, where they have enjoyed greater success than Virginia has in the early goings.

Virginia should be able to slow the Bulldogs down, undoubtedly.  The slowest tempo the Zags have faced thus far was West Virginia (268th, presently) – and the Mountaineers played the top-ranked team closer than anyone else.  However, WVU also gave up 87 points – while the most the Cavaliers have given up in a game thus far is 64 to Kent State.  If that is any indication, Virginia should be able to keep Gonzaga below their season average of 94.7 points.

The issue for Virginia is their offense.  Gonzaga will be slowed down and should have fewer possessions than usual, but they will also still score on nearly every possession – they are just that deadly. The Cavaliers desperately need their backcourt to come alive in this game – that will be the difference between this being a long night for UVA or a potential back-and-forth affair between two nationally-ranked squads.

Prediction: Gonzaga 80 – Virginia 67