Iowa will travel to the daunted RAC on Saturday to take on Rutgers in a pivotal top-15 Big Ten showdown.
TV schedule: Saturday, January 2, 2:00 pm ET. ESPN2
Arena: Rutgers Athletic Center (The RAC) in Piscataway, New Jersey
In a loaded Saturday schedule for college basketball, the 10th-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes will collide with the 14th-ranked Rutgers Scarlet Knights in a duel of Big Ten – and national championship – contenders. With both coming off significant Big Ten victories, the Hawkeyes and Scarlet Knights will look to pick up their best win yet.
The Hawkeyes (8-2) have been up-and-down since starting their season on a six-game winning streak, going 2-2 since Dec. 19. They struggled to keep up with top-ranked Gonzaga before toppling Purdue – and followed that up with a Christmas Day loss on the road to Minnesota in overtime. Iowa, most recently, dismantled a red-hot nationally-ranked Northwestern squad at home, 87-72.
There is not much to say about Iowa that is not already known. They feature one of the deadliest offenses in college basketball – they rank first in adjusted offense efficiency, within the top 100 in both 3P% (37.2%, 57th) and 2P% (56.0%, 38th), 34th in effective FG% (55.9%), 20th in offensive rebounding percentage (36.9%), and fifth in turnover percentage, turning the ball over on just 12.6% of their possessions. They are fourth nationally in points per game at 94.3, and averaged 1.06 points per possession.
The Hawkeyes feature one of the most balanced offensive lineups in basketball, headlined by the consensus National Player of the Year in Luka Garza. Garza has lived up to the hype this season, averaging 27.7 points on a 64.6% clip from two and a 48.6% clip from three.
In addition, he has been hauling down 9.6 caroms per game to go with 2.0 blocks. Joe Wieskamp (15.2 ppg and 6.7 rpg), CJ Frederick (11.3 ppg), Jordan Bohannon (8.6 and 4.4 apg), and Connor McCaffery (4.5 apg and 4.0 rpg) are among those – but not all – of the Hawkeyes who have provided key minutes.
Iowa’s latest performance against Northwestern provided Jordan Bohannon‘s best showcase thus far this season, which is a huge, positive sign for Iowa fans moving forward. The school record holder in most 3PTers made in a career, Bohannon had scored double-digits just once this season, pouring in 24 against North Carolina – and replicated that performance against Northwestern, recording 24 points (7-11 FG, 6-9 3PT) to go with five boards and five assists.
The Scarlet Knights (7-1), meanwhile, have looked better than anticipated to begin the 2020-21 season. After entering the year ranked 24th in the preseason poll, Rutgers ran through its first six games undefeated, taking down Syracuse, Maryland, and Illinois in the process – before eventually suffering its first loss of the year to Ohio State, 80-68. Like Iowa, the Scarlet Knights rebounded from their last loss with a significant win, taking down a scrappy Purdue squad at the RAC, 81-76.
But also like the Hawkeyes, Rutgers maintains a stellar offense – and rank in the top 100 in numerous categories, including adjusted offense efficiency (16th), 3P% (39.3%, 24th), 2P% (54.5%, 57th), effective FG% (55.9%, 32nd), and turnover percentage, turning the ball over on just 15.4% of their possessions – the 19th-best mark in basketball. They put in 80.6 points per game, good for 61st in the nation – and they average 1.00 points per possession.
The Scarlet Knights have been led by Ron Harper Jr., who was not picked on the Preseason All-Conference Team, but has played like an All-American caliber talent to begin his junior campaign, averaging 23.4 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game. Star guard Geo Baker (9.6 ppg and 2.8 apg) has been great since returning from injury, and the flourishment of Montez Mathis (15.6 ppg) and Jacob Young (15.5) was instrumental for Rutgers during Baker’s absence.
Rutgers’ win over Purdue was significant for a number of reasons, but most importantly, they did it without Harper Jr., who was out due to injury. Young (13) and Baker (19) were key for the Scarlet Knights, but it was the season-best performance by Mathis, who poured in 25 points behind a perfect 5-5 showing from beyond the arc, that kept the Knights afloat in Harper’s unexpected absence.
First and foremost, the biggest question mark heading into this showdown is whether Harper Jr. will play or not. The Scarlet Knights have the firepower to keep up with Iowa’s high-octane offense, but they need Harper in order to have a chance – in the one meeting between the Hawkeyes and Knights last season, Harper poured in a team-high 29 points in an 85-80 win for Iowa.
This game will also come down to whether or not Rutgers can defend Iowa for a full 40 minutes, especially if – Harper’s status pending – they do not have the offense to ultimately keep up. The Scarlet Knights rank 66th in 3P% defense, holding teams to 30.0% – the third-best mark that Iowa has faced thus far after Iowa State and Northwestern.
Additionally, Rutgers maintains the third-best adjusted defensive efficiency that the Hawkeyes have matched up against, just behind Gonzaga and North Carolina.
There is also the challenge of facing Rutgers at the RAC, which has become one of the most daunting venues in all of college basketball. The Scarlet Knights have won 24 of their past 25 home games, and – despite the lack of fans this season – have gone 6-0 at the RAC this year.
Obviously, it is still way too early to tell who the frontrunner in the Big Ten is – the conference does sport nine top-25 teams, after all. But, even with Wisconsin as the current frontrunner, this game could potentially feature the two best – and most complete – teams in the Big Ten. And, if Harper plays in this game, Rutgers may have the capability to pull off the huge win.
Prediction: Rutgers 87 – Iowa 85