Tennessee Basketball: Vols winning the possession battle in historic fashion

Tennessee Basketball has received credit for its impressive start thus far. Under the radar, however, the Volunteers are generating possessions at a historic level.

Despite suffering its first loss of the season Saturday to Alabama (71-63), Tennessee Basketball has undeniably had an impressive start to the season. At 7-1, Rick Barnes’s squad is ranked in the top ten of both the AP Poll and KenPom.

(Credit to KenPom, hoop-math and sports-reference for statistics – up to date as of January 2nd) 

Tennessee’s skeptics might point to the team’s somewhat soft schedule, along with the surprising home loss to the Crimson Tide. Fans, however, might view the loss as merely an aberration, something that is backed up by the data to some degree. It’s difficult for a team to win that shoots as poorly as Tennessee did from three when it’s opponent shoots as well as Alabama did.

How good the Volunteers truly are remains to be seen, but what can’t be disputed is the team’s historic success at generating possessions thus far. Tennessee is currently ranked 19th in offensive turnover percentage, 15th in offensive rebounding percentage, 16th in defensive turnover percentage and 44th in defensive rebounding percentage.

It’s unclear if these numbers will hold up over the entire season, but if they do, it would put Tennessee in historic company. Dating back to 2001-02, only 51 teams — roughly 2.7 per season — have either 1) finished in the top 50 in 3/4 categories OR 2) finished top 100 in all four.

While 37 teams have achieved top 50 finishes in 3/4 areas, only 14 have recorded top 100 finishes in all four. To filter things further, only six teams — 2014-15 Wichita St, 2013-14 San Diego St, 2011-12 Ohio St, 2006-07 Memphis, 2003-04 Western Michigan and 2003-04 Cincinnati have finished both in the top 50 of 3/4 metrics AND in the top 100 of all four.

No team, however, has finished in the top 50 in ALL FOUR metrics — something Tennessee would do if the season ended today. How have the Volunteers managed to excel in these areas thus far?

Offensive Turnover Percentage:

The lowest turnover percentage team in the nation — Villanova — has achieved this partially due to its 3-point heavy approach (29th-highest in attempt rate). Generally speaking, teams that take more jump shots turn the ball over less (aren’t forcing ball into paint, etc.). While Tennessee is only 316th in 3-pointers, the Volunteers are 19th in “2-point jumper” rate.

Frankly, it’s surprising they don’t rank higher. Almost every Tennessee contributor — in particular Yves Pons (47.6% of shots), John Fulkerson (50.8%), Jaden Springer (49.1%), and Keon Johnson (32.7%) — takes their fair share of midrange shots. This has surely contributed to the team’s low offensive turnover percentage.

Defensive Turnover Percentage:

The Volunteers have plenty of length and athleticism that have helped the defense generate turnovers; Josiah-Jordan James, Jaden Springer, and Keon Johnson are the team’s leaders in steal rate. In Tennessee’s first game of the season, it forced a solid Colorado squad that has generally avoided turnovers this season (66th-best 17.1%) into 23 miscues (35.9% of possessions).

Offensive Rebounding Percentage:

Since Rick Barnes took over prior to the 2015-16 season, Tennessee has never finished outside the top 100 in offensive rebounding percentage: 96th, 72nd, 41st, 82nd, and 93rd over the last five seasons. The Volunteers are willing to crash the offensive glass and have the ability to do so effectively. Consistently deploying two “bigs” in 6-6 Yves Pons and 6-9 John Fulkerson has also helped the cause.

Defensive Rebounding Percentage:

While solid offensive rebounding has been a part of the program the last several seasons, the same can’t be said for defensive rebounding. The Volunteers have only ranked 279th, 260th, 281st, 218th and 329th in this metric since Barnes stepped in as head coach. How have things improved thus far this season?

6-6 Josiah-Jordan James was the only Volunteer to post a defensive rebounding rate above 15% last season (17.8%). While James has largely maintained his rebounding so far (15.6%) it’s been the improvements from Fulkerson (14.5% to 16.3%) and especially Pons (12.1% to 17.6%) that have been key. Highly recruited freshmen in Jaden Springer (17th per ESPN) and Keon Johnson (45th) have helped on the glass as well (15.1%, 15.4% respectively)

Conclusion

Tennessee is probably unlikely to be the first team in KenPom’s database (since 2001-02) to finish in the top 50 in each of offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding, offensive turnover percentage, and defensive turnover percentage. Given the Volunteers are only ranked 44th in defensive rebounding — already a massive improvement from last season — this metric, in particular, is likely to decline.

Tennessee is likely to retain strong rankings in most of these categories, however. The roster is filled with size/athleticism that should not only make life difficult for opponents but keep the Volunteers in the top 10 of the AP Poll.

P.S.: 

It’s worth noting that the Pacific Tigers are the one other team this season in the top 50 of 3/4 metrics (4th, 29th, 173rd, 38th). The No. 1 ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs are close to achieving this as well (28th, 36th, 104th, 57th) if its defensive rebounding can improve just a bit.