Kentucky vs. Alabama: 2020-21 college basketball game preview, TV schedule

In a duel between undefeated SEC squads, Kentucky and Alabama will meet – and a loss for either team would be detrimental at this point in the season.

TV schedule: Tuesday, January 12, 9:00 pm ET. SEC Network

Arena: Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center in Lexington, Kentucky

Two of the three remaining undefeated SEC squads in the Kentucky Wildcats and Alabama Crimson Tide will duke it out in a pivotal conference showdown on Tuesday night, and the result could set the tone for the season for both teams moving forward.

After struggling to begin the 2020-21 season, the Kentucky Wildcats (4-6) have finally begun to pick up steam – and it could not have come at a better time.  The Wildcats looked lackluster in narrow victories over Mississippi State and Vanderbilt – but Kentucky picked up its biggest win of the season on Saturday, dominating a solid Florida squad on the road, 76-58.

The Wildcats were led by a balanced onslaught of double-digit scorers, with Davion Mintz and Brandon Boston scoring 13 points apiece – together, they went 5-9 on 2PT, 3-6 from beyond the arc, and 7-7 from the charity stripe, while recording six combined steals and dishing out six combined assists.  Olivier Sarr also recorded 10 points (5-7 2PT) – but no Wildcat had as big of an impact as Keion Brooks did in his season debut.  Coming off the bench, Brooks tallied 12 points (6-6 2PT) to go with six rebounds and four assists – and his return was the catalyst for the Wildcats’ shocking display.

In addition to their individual performances, the Wildcats were also blistering from the field – a complete opposite from their season-long struggles.  While Kentucky ranks below-average in 2P% (47.4%, 237th), 3P% (31.1%, 242nd), and FT% (69.3%, 199th), the Wildcats were unconscious against the Gators, going 23-39 (59.0%) inside the arc, 6-13 (46.2%) outside, and 12-13 (92.3%) from the charity stripe.

Notably, Kentucky’s stellar defensive numbers – which rank in the top 100 nationally – were also on display, particularly inside.  The Gators – who rank 107th in 2P% at 51.9% – were held to an abysmal 33.3% on two-pointers.

The Crimson Tide (9-3), meanwhile, has racked up an impressive resume of wins in Nate Oats’ second season.  With non-conference wins over Providence and Furman, Alabama has steadily picked up significant SEC wins, rolling over Mississippi and Florida – while taking down Tennessee on the road.  Most recently, the Crimson Tide experienced a narrow victory in a high-scoring affair at Auburn, defeating the Tigers on Saturday, 94-90.

Alabama’s starting five were stellar against the Tigers, with all five tallying double-digits in the win.  Joshua Primo (22 points, 4-8 3PT, 8-8 FT) and Jordan Bruner (20 points, 4-6 2PT, 3-6 3PT, seven rebounds, four assists, three steals) were the architects of an offense that averaged 1.07 points per possession – and they were joined by Herb Jones (19 points, 7-9 2PT, 5-5 FT, eight rebounds, five steals), Jaden Shackelford (11 points), and John Petty (10 points).

The Crimson Tide are one of the fastest teams in Div. I basketball, playing the 15th-fastest tempo – one that allows for 74.6 possessions per game.  Likewise, Alabama takes just 14.2 seconds off the shot-clock before their possession ends – the fifth-highest mark in college basketball.

Despite their hurried nature on the offensive end, where the Crimson Tide experience their best success is defensively – but, for the most part, they struggled against the Tigers.  Allowing Auburn to score 1.02 points per possession, Alabama allowed Auburn to shoot 60.0% (21-35) on 2PT and awarded them 28 attempts at the charity stripe – where they drained 24 freebies.

Both Kentucky and Alabama struggle to shoot the ball from the floor – they are sub-par from both inside and outside the arc – but they rely on different aspects of offense.  The Wildcats rely mightily on inside play, where 58.1% of their point distribution comes from – the 22nd-highest mark in Div. I – while just 22.8% (324th) comes from long range.  Alabama, meanwhile, sees 35.8% (56th) of its offense come from three-pointers, compared to 44.8% (306th) on two-pointers.

These two squads also feature drastically different styles of play.  Again, the Crimson Tide are one of the fastest teams in basketball – but Kentucky likes to play it slow, ranking 238th in adjusted tempo with 68.0 possessions.  Likewise, their defense forces opponents to take 18 full seconds off the shot-clock before taking a shot – which ranks 313th in college basketball.

For Kentucky to win this game, they need to slow the Crimson Tide down drastically.  Their defense showed up – and dominated – against Florida, and Alabama shoots far worse from the floor than the Gators do.  They will need to replicate that performance in order to stand a chance – because if this turns into a shootout, the Wildcats may not have the firepower needed to keep up with an Alabama squad that is averaging just under 80 points a game.

To put it obviously, this game is also significant for both squads.  Alabama cannot afford a loss to a Kentucky squad that currently sports a losing record, especially after picking up wins over Tennessee and Florida in the Tide’s only scheduled contests against them this year.  For the Wildcats, meanwhile, this would be their biggest win of the year – and could go a long way if they hope to become the first team to start 1-6 and still make the NCAA Tournament.

Prediction: Kentucky 76 – Alabama 71