Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s: 2020-21 college basketball game preview, TV schedule
TV schedule: Thursday, January 14, 11:00 pm ET. ESPN2
Arena: UCU Pavilion in Moraga, California
The Saint Mary’s Gaels will search for their first WCC win of the season on Saturday night – but it will be their toughest challenge yet, hosting the top-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs in their first showdown since last March’s WCC title game.
After starting the season 8-1, the Gaels have struggled down the stretch as of late, going 1-3 in their last four games. That stretch began with a 74-49 blowout loss against San Diego State and has consisted of a win over Sacramento State and back-to-back home losses to open WCC play to Santa Clara and BYU.
The Gaels struggled to get much production, with Tommy Kuhse – playing the full 40 minutes – tying for the team-lead in points with 12 points (5-7 2PT). Joining him was Quinn Clinton off the bench, who also put in 12 points (3-6 3PT, 3-3 FT). Three other players scored between 8-9 points – but it was not enough to overcome BYU’s balanced scoring onslaught.
Saint Mary’s battle with BYU was a defensive affair, coming down to a 62-52 win for BYU. That score is not indicative of how close Saint Mary’s was in this game – they led by eight with 11 minutes left and maintained a 50-43 edge with 10:36 left in the game.
The Cougars, however, embarked on a 16-0 run over the next 10 minutes, holding the Gaels scoreless until the 50-second mark – but it was too little too late. In all, the Gaels averaged just 0.85 points per possession in the game, shooting 46.4% (2PT) and 27.3% (3PT).
Gonzaga (13-0), meanwhile, are coming off their toughest challenge since their five-point win over West Virginia back in December. The Zags have rallied to a 4-0 start in WCC play, toppling San Francisco and BYU – two of the top teams in the WCC – by double-digits, while hanging 116 on Portland. Gonzaga’s most recent outing yielded a 95-70 win over Pepperdine – but that final is not indicative of how well Pepperdine played the Bulldogs.
Pepperdine featured seven players who scored between seven and 14 points – but they were not enough to overcome Gonzaga’s four-headed monster of Drew Timme, Corey Kispert, Joel Ayayi, and Jalen Suggs. Kispert led the way, draining six bombs to finish with 23 points, while Timme went 8-15 inside to supply 20 points, to go with seven boards and four assists. Ayayi nabbed four steals while scoring 19, and Suggs continued his stellar freshman campaign with 18 points.
The Waves were in this game for nearly 30 minutes – they held a one-point lead with six minutes left, trailed by just four at halftime, and were within single-digits with just over 13 minutes to play. But Gonzaga came alive, going on a 39-22 run to end the game to claim the 25-point victory.
They finished with a 1.20 points per possession average while draining 61.0% of their inside shots. They hauled down 15 offensive rebounds while making 27 trips to the charity stripe. The lone bad mark was their 18 turnovers – their most since their December 19th game against Iowa.
There is not a more efficient offense in the country than Gonzaga’s, and the Bulldogs own the ninth-fastest tempo in college basketball – one that allows for nearly 76 possessions per game, and one that ranks sixth in average possession length with 14.3 seconds. Saint Mary’s, meanwhile, is one of the slowest teams out there, ranking 354th in tempo (62.9 possessions) while taking 20.2 seconds (343rd) off the shot-clock per possession.
Both teams feature similar defensive numbers, with Gonzaga holding teams to 0.86 points per possession and Saint Mary’s slightly better at 0.84. But where the Gaels will mightily struggle is on the offense end, where they muster just 67.6 points per game (263rd) – which translates to 0.91 points per possession. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, average an overwhelming 96.0 points per game, the highest mark in all of college basketball, as well as 1.10 points per possession.
What could be a saving grace for Saint Mary’s is their defense inside the arc. The Gaels rank 28th nationally, holding teams to 43.7% on two-pointers, and they will desperately need that defense to come through in order to lock down Gonzaga’s third-best 65.1% 2P% clip.
Where Saint Mary’s will run into issues is outside the arc, where they struggle both offensively and defensively – but the Zags rank 141st, knocking down 34.2% of their long-range shots. The Gaels will also have to fight to keep the Zags off the board – Saint Mary’s rank 10th in keeping teams off the offensive boards, allowing a carom on just 19.9% of their attempts, whereas the Zags rank 21st in hauling down offensive rebounds at 35.3%.
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This is a Saint Mary’s squad struggling as of late – especially on the offensive end. After five-straight games of scoring over 70 games, the Gaels’ last five outings have seen point totals of 53, 49, 63, 64, and 52. Gonzaga’s last five games, meanwhile, have seen the Bulldogs score 112, 85, 86, 116, and 95. This offense might just be too good for Saint Mary’s to keep up with – and Gonzaga should be able to cruise to their 14th-straight victory.
Prediction: Gonzaga 89 – Saint Mary’s 66