Kansas vs. Baylor: 2020-21 college basketball game preview, TV schedule

TV schedule: Monday, January 18, 9:00 pm ET. ESPN

Arena: Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas

One of the biggest matchups in the Big 12 this season is slated for Monday night when the Baylor Bears host the Kansas Jayhawks, in a showdown of two of the best defenses in college basketball.

The Jayhawks (10-3) are coming off a week-long break, having last played on January 12, which yielded a disappointing 75-70 loss at Oklahoma State.  Since Kansas’ impressive streak of wins over Creighton, Texas Tech, and West Virginia, the Jayhawks have had a tumultuous return from Christmas, getting blown out in the first contest of the year at Texas, dismantling TCU on the road, and struggling with Oklahoma in a four-point win for Kansas on January 9th.

Despite the loss, Kansas got one of the best performances in David McCormack‘s three-year tenure, recording season-highs in points (24 on 10-18 2PT, 4-4 FT), rebounds (12), and blocks (three).  Joining him in double-figures were Ochai Agbaji (14 points on 4-9 3PT) and Marcus Garrett (12 points on 6-9 2PT) – necessary performances given the struggles of fellow starters Christian Braun and Jalen Wilson, who amassed a combined four points, with Wilson finishing as a game-worst minus-16 for the tilt.

It’s not like the Jayhawks played awfully, either – they averaged 1.00 points per possession, shot 56.1% (23-41) on two-pointers, and hauled down 12 offensive rebounds.  But it was an uphill climb for nearly the entirety of the contest.  The Jayhawks faced an 11-point deficit at halftime and trailed by as much as 16 points in the second half, 65-49, with 9:16 left.

But after that, the Jayhawks embarked on a 21-2 run to take a three-point lead with just over a minute left – but failed to seal the deal.  The Cowboys held Kansas to 0-4 shooting in the final minute, finishing the game on a 7-0 route.  Where the Jayhawks’ issues arose were from the charity stripe – despite outscoring the Cowboys from the floor, Kansas went 9-9 from the line – while Oklahoma State took 20 trips, knocking down 16.

Now, Kansas will line up against a Baylor squad that gets to the charity stripe 19 times a game.  The Bears (12-0) have cemented themselves as one of the two best teams in college basketball, alongside Gonzaga, and have most recently ripped off four-straight Big 12 wins to begin the new year, earning victories over Iowa State, Oklahoma, TCU, and Texas Tech.

The Bears’ most recent victory on Saturday yielded the first single-digit result in Baylor’s schedule, in a 68-60 win at Texas Tech.  In what has been a theme for Baylor during Big 12 play, the Bears struggled to put away the Raiders in the first half, leading by seven at halftime – before facing a three-point deficit seven minutes into the second stanza.  The two squads went back-and-forth, before – with Baylor leading 52-47 at the five-minute mark – the Bears amassed a lead as large as 10.

Baylor uncharacteristically struggled from the offensive end, tallying just 45.2%, 37.5%, and 59.1% marks on 2PT, 3PT, and FT, respectively.  Likewise, Baylor’s All-American talent Jared Butler struggled as well, tallying just seven points while fouling out.  His teammates, however, succeeded at filling the gaps – Davion Mitchell (19 points, 6-12 FG) and MaCio Teague (12 points, 6-9 2PT) were both instrumental in the starting lineup, while Adam Flagler supplied 15 points off the bench.

Despite Baylor’s offensive woes, their defense – which now ranks as the most efficient defense in the nation, as a result of this game and Clemson’s woeful performance against Virginia – stepped up big, holding Tech to 0.86 points per possession while allowing 42.1% and 25.0% clips from inside and outside.  Most notably, the Bears forced the Raiders to commit 20 turnovers, which they scored 22 points on to Tech’s 12.

Where this game could come down to is Kansas’ ability – or inability – to defend from beyond the arc.  The Jayhawks rank in the top 100 nationally in defending inside the arc, but are average (152nd) when defending from long-range, allowing opponents to shoot 33.0%.  That is not awful, but the issue comes with just how good Baylor is from three – they rank third in Div. I, knocking down an impressive 42.3% of their outside shots.

Likewise, if Kansas hopes to win, they need to value the basketball.  They are better than the Div. I average when it comes to turnover percentage, handing the ball over on just 18.2% of their possessions – but Baylor thrives on generating turnovers, forcing a deflection on 26.9% of opposing teams’ possessions.  That ranks third nationally.

Where Kansas has enjoyed success at will also be difficult to utilize against the Bears.  The Jayhawks’ 35.1% offensive rebounding percentage is the lone KenPom statistic (outside of offensive and defensive efficiency) where Kansas ranks in the top 30 (35.1%).  Contrarily, however, the Bears are even better inside, hauling down an eighth-best 38.2% of their attempts.

Even worse for Kansas is that this game is in Waco, where the Bears have won five games by double-digits – and by an average of 33.8 points.  This game is crucial for both squads – Baylor cannot afford a slip-up in a top-heavy Big 12, while Kansas could desperately use a marquee defining win in the new year.  However, Baylor might just be too good this year for the Jayhawks to keep up – especially considering their stellar play from outside

Prediction: Baylor 71 – Kansas 65