TV schedule: Tuesday, January 19, 7:00 pm ET. ESPN
Arena: Exactech Arena at Stephen C. O’Connell Center in Gainesville, Florida
Tuesday’s SEC showdown features two programs experiencing drastically different seasons. Outside of their game against Alabama, the Tennessee Volunteers have looked like a true contender for the National Championship. They are 10-1 on the year, with their only loss coming at the hands of the Crimson Tide in early January.
Florida, on the other hand, is struggling. Sitting at 6-4 (3-3 in the SEC), the Gators cannot perform at a consistent level, leaving projected outcomes uncertain on a nightly basis. To this point, Florida had only played one ranked opponent, losing to Florida State when they were ranked 20th in mid-December. Tuesday’s matchup against the Volunteers will be their most challenging task thus far.
Tennessee’s primary weapon, night-in, and night-out, is its defense. The Volunteers dictate the pace of the game, eliminate easy opportunities, a force turnovers. Nationally, Tennessee is holding opposing teams to just 57.2 points per game. Teams in the SEC perform slightly better, averaging 62.6. It’s a different story with Florida. Opponents can regularly produce, averaging 71.0 points per game. As is the case with Tennessee, SEC teams perform better, scoring around 75 points per contest.
One thing that could work in Florida’s favor if they were playing a team other than the Volunteers is they do not allow many opportunities from behind the three-point line. Unfortunately, Tennesse is far from a three-point heavy team. They rely on scoring from inside the arc and will not adjust their gameplan for the Gators.
Offensively, each team produces close to 77 points a night. At first glance, it may look like they are on an equal playing field, but the Gators has not faced a defense as formidable as Tennessee’s. If Florida looks to have any success against the Volunteers, they will need to score between 60 and 65 points, rely heavily on Tre Mann, and hope their defense can do enough to create a few key empty opportunities the other way.
In all reality, this is more of a tuneup game for the Volunteers, and they gear up to face Missouri on January 23rd. Florida is not on the same level as its opponent, and it will likely show clearly.
Prediction: Tennessee 76 – Florida 58