Big East Basketball: Analyzing Creighton, UConn and Villanova by the numbers

In 2004 Dean Oliver was credited for putting the finishing touches on what he coined as the “Four Factors of Basketball Sucess“. Now, the title in itself is rather self-explanatory, yet the actual theory can be complicated.

In short, Dean Oliver’s theory is, there are four keys to winning a basketball game and the team that has the most success accomplishing those factors will win. None of the four factors should be surprising to anyone, but how Oliver implemented and calculated the four factors might be.

For those unfamiliar with the Four Factors of Basketball Success, Oliver theorizes for a team to win they must; shoot the ball well, take care of the ball, make free- throws and get additional possessions and this is where the advanced stats come into play. Oliver goes beyond just the team’s averages per game.

Effective field goal percentage is used and adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal. Instead of settling for how many turnovers per game a team averages he uses turnover percentage which is an estimate of the number of turnovers per100 plays. In lieu of free-throw percent, free throw rate is utilized to identify the number of free throws made per field goal attempt. Finally, offensive rebounding percentage is used to determine a team’s ability to rebound.

Obviously, numbers do not tell the whole story and there are other factors that go into winning a basketball game, but in a year when it has never been easier to see every team play, for there are only 347 teams playing this year, one has to decide how they are going to predict outcomes. Past behavior is always the best indication of future behavior and the Four Factors provide some insight into that.

It must be noted that this article is only taking conference games into account since each factor is calculated with a mathematical equation, with 347 teams of varying skill level, incorporating Connecticut’s eighteen offensive rebounds versus Central Connecticut who is 2-5 in the NEC, would throw off the calculations. Unless we were to incorporate the strength of the schedule and at that point, there might be no end to that rabbit hole.

In order to eliminate all personal bias and favoritism, the three top teams in the Big East Basketball Power Rankings will be used. There needs to be a cutoff somewhere and three is as good as a number as any. When it comes to regular-season championships or the conference tournament finals, odds are it will come down to three of the top teams.

The stats utilized are tallied up to the games completed by Villanova, Creighton, and Connecticut on Jan. 17, 2021. With Connecticut and Creighton having already played one another, there is an actual match that can determine if the Four Factors are accurate.