Big East Basketball: Analyzing Creighton, UConn and Villanova by the numbers
The numbers say . . .
When you take the numbers and apply them using Game Theory, in a similar fashion as the popular children’s game of rock, paper scissors, Villanova wins 13 categories, Connecticut wins nine and Creighton comes out on top in just three of those categories. However, fun to do, the number of categories that Vilanova has over Creighton should not play a factor in Villanova’s games versus Connecticut.
What the numbers do tell us is that Connecticut is the best defensive team, regardless of the fact that they give up the highest percentage of offensive rebounds. Yet, one should expect the defense to be less effective when playing against Villanova who turns the ball over less than seven percent of the time and should be overwhelmed versus Creighton’s 57 percent effective field goal percentage.
If we solely take the four factors into consideration we can get some insight into the projected victors of the games these contenders play head to head. There is also the benefit of Connecticut and Creighton having played already that allows for cross-referencing.
The least competitive game will be Villanova versus Creighton as Villanova is better in every category in comparison to Creighton. Even when taking into consideration that their effective field goal percentage and offensive rebounding percentage are virtually the same, Villanova is the easy victor. Creighton’s turnovers on offense and Villanova’s success at the free-throw line being the determining factors.
The four factors state that Connecticut takes five categories to three versus Creighton, but on Dec. 20, 2020, the Blue Jays defeated the Huskies 76-74. Even as the Huskies won three of the four factors, yet RJ Cole missed a pair of free-throws with the Huskies up by two with eleven seconds remaining in their first game back from a COVID pause.
The Villanova and Connecticut match-up will fall in favor of Villanova and it might just be the free-throw battle that decides it, as they have comparative stats on both ends of the floor. That is if the Wildcats can keep the Huskies from getting second-chance points.
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It may not be ground-breaking to claim and Villanova might have the best stats because they are the best team. In addition, the rest of the Big East was not taken into consideration, but when we take the current Big Three in the Big East the hierarchy starts at the top with Villanova then moves on to Connecticut and finishes with Creighton.