Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina: 2020-21 college basketball game preview, TV schedule

TV schedule: Tuesday, January 26, 7:00 pm ET. ACC Network

Arena: Petersen Events Center in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Two teams vying for a position in the upper echelon of the ACC will duel in an evening showdown on Tuesday night between the Pittsburgh Panthers and North Carolina Tar Heels – in a must-win for both teams.

The Panthers (8-3) have had as tumultuous and, ultimately, disappointing of a week as a team could endure.  After sweeping Syracuse in the span of 10 days – with the second matchup being decided by a whopping 20-point margin – Pittsburgh picked up what could have been a season-defining win over Duke on Tuesday night, 79-73.

But any good that Pitt did in that game was reversed just days later when the Panthers gave Wake Forest its first ACC win of the season, 76-75.  Allowing a 12-point second-half lead to slip away from them, the Panthers allowed the Demon Deacons to shoot a blistering 46.9% (15-32) from outside – and to average a deadly 1.10 points per possession.

If there have been any positives for Pitt in their tumultuous stretch, it was the return – and dominance – of Justin Champagnie.  After missing two games, Champagnie returned against Syracuse and recorded 24 points and 16 rebounds – and then followed that up with a career-high 31 points (8-8 2PT, 4-7 3PT, 3-6 FT) against Duke – all the while hauling down 14 rebounds and blocking five shots.  He followed those performances up with a 17-point, 8-rebound, 5-steal showcase at Wake Forest.

North Carolina (10-5), meanwhile, has been solid since their sloppy 0-2 start to ACC play, having gone 5-1 in their last six games.  None of those wins have been necessarily remarkable – they came against Notre Dame, Miami, Syracuse, Wake Forest, and N.C. State, with all five coming by 10 points or less – but it has served well as a confidence-booster after UNC’s frustrations and disappointments in the early goings of the season.

The Tar Heels’ inconsistency has not been a mystery to college basketball fans – and it is still something that has plagued them in recent games.  Their offense, however, has been a bit more spread out than before.  Their most recent outing against N.C. State yielded five different double-digit scorers, with Armando Bacot leading the way with 17 points.  Joining him were Day’Ron Sharpe (16 points, 10 rebounds), Caleb Love (15 points), RJ Davis, and Anthony Harris (10 points each).

That’s without even mentioning Garrison Brooks, the Preseason ACC Player of the Year, who has struggled mightily this season – but has still scored double-figures in three of UNC’s last four games.  He scored just four points while fouling out against the Wolfpack – but, even with Brooks’ shooting woes, the Tar Heels were absolutely dominant inside, shooting 57.9% (33-57) and outrebounding N.C. State, 44-30.

More than anything, inside play will be the key to the showdown between Pittsburgh and North Carolina.  Both teams are woeful when shooting the ball – Pitt ranks 239th in 3P% (31.7%) and 185 in 2P% (49.7%), and the Tar Heels are even worse with marks of 31.0% (3P%, 266th) and 47.5% (2P%, 242nd), as well as from the free-throw line (67.7%, 246th).

But where the gap widens between these two teams is in their point distribution – and how much UNC relies on the two-ball.  Pitt does not rely much on long-range bombs, but they rely on it substantially more than the Tar Heels do – a 6% margin, roughly.  By contrast, the Panthers see 52.9% of their offense come from two-pointers (115th) – while UNC thrives on its offense coming from inside, where they rank 22nd at 58.4%.

Without a doubt, Champagnie is one of the best players in the ACC – but he will have his hands beyond full with the frontcourt towers of Brooks, Bacot, and Sharpe.  He was effective against them last season, scoring 27 combined points across both games – both of which were wins for Pitt.  But the Tar Heels are better this season, and the addition of Sharpe has given them a different – and deeper – repertoire inside.

The last “post” Champagnie saw was Wake Forest’s Ismael Massoud – and Massoud drained a career-high 31 points on eight three-pointers against the Panthers.  The Tar Heels’ posts are more under-the-basket types of posts, however – and Champagnie will have his work cut out for him to contain all three inside.

Additionally, the showdown at the point guard position will be one to watch.  UNC’s Caleb Love and RJ Davis have both been streaky this season, but both are coming off solid double-digit showings against N.C. State.  Pitt’s Xavier Johnson, meanwhile, has served as a steady floor general, recording seven assists or more in eight of Pitt’s games this season – and is coming off a 14-point, 8-assist game at Wake Forest.

This is a must-win for both squads, to say the least.  The Tar Heels have clawed to work their way back to the upper tier of the ACC, and a loss to Pitt would be deadly for their reputation.  The Panthers, meanwhile, desperately need to redeem themselves after the embarrassing loss at Wake Forest – especially if they hope to find themselves on the bubble.

What could set this game apart – as much as it can in this bizarre season – is home-court advantage for Pitt  The Panthers are 5-2 in home games this year, and it is no coincidence that their two best showings of the year – their last two wins against Syracuse and Duke – came at home.

Contrarily, the Tar Heels are an awful 1-4 on the road, with their lone win coming by two points at Miami.  If the same Pitt team that showed up at home against Syracuse and Duke show up in this one, it might just be enough to overcome UNC’s frontcourt.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 77 – North Carolina 73