Virginia Basketball: Is 2020-21 Cavaliers defense as elite as seasons past?

Virginia Basketball is arguably best known for churning out elite defenses, something the program has done consistently year-after-year. Since Tony Bennett took over prior to 2009-10, the Cavaliers have had a top-ten defense in eight of eleven seasons and each of the last seven.

(Credit to KenPom and sports-reference for statistics)

It was the one season when Virginia ranked better offensively than defensively, however (2018-19), that the Cavaliers broke through and won the national championship.

*2020-21: #11 off, #17 def

2019-20: #234 off, # 1 def

2018-19: #2 off, #5 def

2017-18: #30 off, #1 def

2016-17: #50 off, #2 def

2015-16: #8 off, #7 def

2014-15: #21 off, #2 def

2013-14: #27 off, #4 def

This year’s Virginia squad might not be on quite the same level as the title team (was 2nd in offense, 5th in defense), but it has a similar balance on both ends of the floor. Like 2018-19, the Cavaliers rank in the top twenty in both offense and defense, with the offense edging out the defense thus far (11th, 17th).

Defense Still Elite?

Defensively, Virginia’s statistical profile is similar to that of past seasons. Its pack line scheme protects the paint (forcing opponents into 3-point attempts), and the Cavaliers don’t give up many offensive rebounds or trips to the foul line.

*2020-21: 17th in defense, 56th in def 2PT %, 5th in def rebounding %, 12th in free throw rate, 280th in defensive 3PT attempt rate

2019-20: 1st in defense, 6th in def 2PT%, 18th in def rebounding %, 5th in free throw rate, 315th in defensive 3PT attempt rate

2018-19: 5th in defense, 22nd in def 2PT %, 50th in def rebounding %, 21st in free throw rate, 299th in defensive 3PT attempt rate

But while ranking #17 defensively this season is nothing to sneeze at, it would be the program’s worst finish since 2012-13. What’s been “less elite” on this end of the floor in 2020-21?

1. Virginia’s defenses haven’t historically generated turnovers at particularly high rates, but it’s doing so at an especially low level this season (311th in turnover rate — 142nd and 250th prior two seasons).

2. Teams are also shooting fairly well from three against the Cavaliers. While defensive 3-point percentage is generally regarded as unpredictable year-to-year, Virginia has managed to buck this trend — ranking in the top 40 of this metric each of the past four seasons.

Whether the luck has simply run out or there’s another explanation, Virginia’s opponents have been faring better from downtown. This season,  there have been 46 instances of a team making >= 10 threes on >= 40% shooting vs. a ranked opponent. The Cavaliers have been a victim of this three times — only Clemson has had more (4).

Defensive 3PT %

*2020-21: 34.4% (219th)

2019-20: 29.3% (16th)

2018-19: 28.9% (3rd)

2017-18: 31.0% (9th)

2016-17: 31.7% (30th)

The Cavaliers lost two of the three games — 61-60 to San Francisco and 98-75 to Gonzaga — while they beat Wake Forest 70-61. The San Francisco loss — which came in the 2nd game of the season — was seen as potentially a troubling sign for Virginia — but perhaps the Dons simply got hot from downtown? (shot 13/28).  On the other hand, Virginia needed overtime to beat Kent St. at home two games later — a game in which Kent St. only made 9/32 threes — so perhaps the Cavaliers were legitimately a different team early on this season.

Regardless of the answer, it seems that at least some of Virginia’s “3PT % defense” magic have returned. Since the Wake Forest game, the Cavaliers have held four of six opponents to under 30% from three. In Virginia’s most recent game against Virginia Tech (L 65-51), however, the Hokies shot 9-18 from downtown. So perhaps Virginia’s “bad luck” could be sticking around after all.

3. Virginia’s opponents are also shooting 76.6% at the free throw line, a percentage that would rank 28th nationally. It seems the defense has had some bad luck in this regard as well.

The Cavaliers could very well finish the season with a top-ten defense like seasons past. If this doesn’t come to pass, there could be several potential explanations, including the following: 1) bad luck when it comes to opponent 3-point and free throw shooting, 2) the losses of Mamadi Diakite and Braxton Key from last year’s squad and 3) Sam Hauser, Trey Murphy and Reece Beekman — three guys playing their first season’s with the Cavaliers (two transfers and a freshman) — all starting and playing heavy minutes.