North Carolina Basketball: 3 keys to topple Duke in 2020-21 rivalry showdown

1. UNC’s highly-touted – but struggling – frontcourt could have a field day against Duke’s big men

Entering the season, North Carolina’s frontcourt was one of the most touted in college basketball.  Headlined by the Preseason ACC Player of the Year in Garrison Brooks, UNC’s frontcourt also featured the 6-10 tower of Armando Bacot, who was coming off a solid freshman campaign – as well as incoming freshman Day’Ron Sharpe.

Now a little over halfway through the season, most of that anticipation has paid off – somewhat.  The three big men are three of UNC’s top four leading scorers, with the tandem of Bacot (11.9 ppg and 7.5 rpg) and Brooks (10.4 ppg and 7.2 rpg) leading the way.  Sharpe, meanwhile, supplies 9.6 points – but actually leads the team in rebounding with 7.7 boards per game.

It has not necessarily been all success for the frontcourt, however.  Brooks, in particular, has struggled in his senior campaign, with many of his averages taking significant dives from his junior year – including FG% (54.4% to 43.3%), rebounds (8.7 to 7.4), assists (2.1 to 1.4), and points (16.4 to 10.6).  Against Clemson, Brooks nearly reached a double-double, posting eight points and nine rebounds.

Likewise, Bacot – who has been impressive nearly all season behind a 65.5% 2PT clip and after averaging 18.7 points – on a 77.4% 2PT clip, no less – in UNC’s three-game winning streak prior to the Clemson lost – scored just one point while taking just one shot against the Tigers, accumulating two turnovers and four fouls in 19 minutes of play.

Sharpe has been inconsistent, as well, but enjoyed the most success of UNC’s three big men against the Tigers.  The freshman nearly tallied a double-double, tying the game-high in points with 16 – off the bench – while hauling down eight boards.  Again, however, inconsistency has plagued him, as well – it was just his second double-digit performance in UNC’s last six games.

There is a substantial opportunity for Bacot, Brooks, and Sharpe to feast on the Blue Devils, however.  The trio will line up against Duke’s frontcourt of Matthew Hurt and Jalen Johnson, who can score efficiently – but have struggled to prevent opposing teams from scoring inside.  Additionally, the Tar Heels will meet 7-0 frosh Mark Williams – who has become a valuable bench player in Duke’s last three games – for the first time.

For context, in Duke’s last six games, they have outscored teams in points in the paint – but the margin has only been as large as four points.  They tied in that statistic in the win over Clemson and were outscored in the losses to Virginia Tech (36-26) and Miami (40-36).  In all, the Blue Devils have been outscored in points in the paint, 188-152, in their last six outings.  That is obviously fairly solid offensively – but the defense leaves a lot to be desired.

Contrarily, the Tar Heels are forced to utilize inside play, considering how woeful their long-range play has been – despite shooting 48.5% on two-pointers, UNC is a woeful 30.2% (291st in the nation) from beyond the arc.  That is reflected in their point distribution, where an overwhelming 58.9% of their offense comes from two-pointers – compared to just 21.0% on three-pointers.

If the Tar Heels hope to win this game, they need to pound the ball inside and take advantage of Hurt and Johnson’s interior defense.  In UNC’s last six games, they are outscoring opponents in points in the paint by a whopping 214-166 margin.  It is no coincidence that the two games where the Tar Heels were outscored in points in the paint – Clemson and Florida State – were both losses.