The biggest game of the Atlantic 10 season is set to go on Saturday night, with the first-place St. Bonaventure Bonnies traveling to the ailing Saint Louis Billikens.
TV schedule: Saturday, February 6, 2:00 pm ET. CBS Sports Network
Arena: Chaifetz Arena in St. Louis, Missouri
After being usurped as the top contender of the Atlantic 10, the Saint Louis Billikens will look for redemption on Saturday, hosting the St. Bonaventure Bonnies in a game that will have severe implications on the Atlantic 10 title race.
At the end of December, the Billikens (7-3) appeared primed to be the consensus frontrunner in the Atlantic 10, ripping through their non-conference schedule with a 7-1 record with wins over LSU and N.C. State. Constant pauses have derailed Saint Louis’ status, however, forcing the Billikens to go a full month without a game.
Their return has not necessarily gone as planned, either. After their final game of the 2020 calendar year on December 23rd, the Billikens returned on January 26th – and fell at home to Dayton. A little over a week later, Saint Louis’ streak extended to two games, losing to an upstart La Salle squad in a tilt where the Billikens faced a double-digit deficit with just two minutes left.
Since their return, the Billikens have not necessarily looked rusty on offense, considering they tallied marks of 1.00 and 1.03 points per possession against Dayton and La Salle, respectively – and hauled down an overwhelming 16 offensive boards against the Explorers. But their defense has been lackluster, and they now maintain A-10 ranks – with, obviously, a small sample size – of last in defensive efficiency, effective FG% defense, and 3P% defense.
If there has been any consolation, it is that Javonte Perkins and Jordan Goodwin have both provided double-digits in both games. Perkins tallied 20 against Dayton before putting in a team-high 13 at La Salle, while Goodwin posted an 11-point, 11-rebound double-double against the Flyers and 12 points against the Explorers. In addition, both Hasahn French (16 points against Dayton) and Fred Thatch (12 points at La Salle) have reached double-digits.
Replacing the Billikens as the frontrunner in the A-10 is the St. Bonaventure Bonnies (9-1), a squad that, due to COVID-19 pauses, only played two non-conference games – but have ripped through the conference regular season with a 7-1 mark. With their lone loss coming in their A-10 opener at URI, the Bonnies have now won seven straight, including victories over Richmond and VCU – and are most recently coming off an 84-67 shellacking over George Mason.
The Bonnies have not been without their challenges, either. They began the season boasting one of the deepest benches in the A-10 – and, due to a series of departures, now feature just eight players who see regular playing time. That has not halted St. Bonaventure, however, whose 9-1 start matches the 1970-71 team for the best start in program history – and whose 7-1 start in A-10 play is the best in program history.
St. Bonaventure’s win over George Mason featured an offensive onslaught of four double-digit scorers – which gave way to the Bonnies recording an average of 1.25 points per possession. Despite allowing a 41.7% clip for the Patriots, the Bonnies made up for it inside, recording an astonishing 69.8% (30-43) mark on two-pointers.
Dominick Welch led the way, pouring in a game-high 22 points (5-5 2PT, 4-6 3PT). All-Conference honorees and two-man tandem Kyle Lofton and Osun Osunniyi were also stellar from the floor, with Lofton tallying 20 points (8-9 2PT) to go with five assists, while Osunniyi posted a monster double-double of 18 points and 15 rebounds. Rounding out the double-digit scorers was Jaren Holmes, who added 14 points.
This game carries much significance for both squads, particularly in the race for an NCAA Tournament bid. Coming off two losses after a month-long pause, the Billikens are dangerously close to approaching the bubble, and desperately need a win to keep their postseason aspirations alive.
St. Bonaventure’s lack of a non-conference schedule, meanwhile, does not bode well for the Bonnies in building an at-large-worthy resume – but a win over the previously favorited Billikens would go a long way if they were to fall in the A-10 Tournament.
Again, a small sample size, considering their stats are based on two A-10 games – but the Billikens’ stats indicate that this game could ultimately come down to post play. In the A-10, Saint Louis currently ranks last in 3P% offensively (21.9%) and defensively (43.5%) – while the Bonnies also struggle, albeit not as much, from outside (31.5%), but are a terror defensively (30.7%).
As it was during their non-conference schedule, the Billikens’ greatest strength has been their inside play. They rank third in the A-10 in 2P% (54.7%), and a whopping 64.4% of their offense (in A-10 play) has come on two-pointers – the highest mark in the conference. They will be facing, however, the best two-point defense in the A-10 in the Bonnies, who are holding teams to 44.5% inside.
Additionally, while much of Saint Louis’ success has come from dominating the offensive glass – they rank 21st nationally at 35.3% in offensive rebounding percentage – that mark is over 10% worse in conference play (25.0%). They do, however, maintain a 21.0% defensive mark in OREB% – the second-best mark in the A-10. If Saint Louis hopes to win, they will need to keep the Bonnies off the glass – which will be difficult, considering St. Bonaventure ranks first in the A-10 in OREB% (36.5%).
This will be a stark contrast of styles, considering Saint Louis has played the fastest tempo of any A-10 team in conference play, whereas the Bonnies have played one of the slowest. And, last year’s showdown produced a lopsided 72-49 win in favor of Saint Louis – but, coming off their pause, this is still not yet the same Billikens squad that looked to be the frontrunner of the A-10 just months ago.
Until the Billikens look like the Saint Louis of old, all signs point to the Bonnies coming out on top in this one – but they cannot afford the Billikens to get them into foul trouble. The Bonnies have also struggled to put teams away on the road, having won games at Richmond and Duquesne by less than five points each – and their lone loss to URI was on the road. Again, much hangs on this game – and the winner could, arguably, have the biggest stake in being the top contender in the A-10.
Prediction: St. Bonaventure 74 – Saint Louis 67