TV SCHEDULE: Wednesday, February 10th, 2021 at 7:30 PM ET on Big Ten Network
LOCATION: Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa
Coach Steve Pikiell has the Scarlet Knights enjoying their most successful season under his tutelage since he took over before the 2016-17 season. For four years, the Scarlet Knights toiled as a sub-.500 team with an overall record of 44-54 in from 2016-20. In 2019-20, the Scarlet Knights enjoyed a six-win improvement with their first 20-win season since 2003-04 under head coach Gary Waters. Pikiell currently has his Scarlet Knights with an 11-6 record including a 7-6 conference record. They roll into Iowa City riding a four-game win streak.
The Iowa Hawkeyes were the talk of the NCAA through the first half of the season with superstar Luke Garza leading the way. Since the new year, it seems, the Hawkeyes have been quiet and for good reason. After starting the season 12-2 with a ranking as high as third in the nation, the Hawkeyes began their downward spiral on January 21st against Indiana – suffering a 12-point loss. The key for Iowa’s success does hinge, partly, on Luke Garza. Surprisingly, the injury to guard CJ Fredrick has really affected the Hawkeyes.
CJ Fredrick has either been out or played low double-digit minutes for the Hawkeyes in the last four games. The Hawkeyes are 0-3 with Fredrick out of the lineup and the Hawkeye’s are still listing him as day-to-day before their matchup against Rutgers. Fredrick was a solid three-point shooter – hitting 26 of 52 attempts on the season.
Is it time for another big Luke Garza performance? Possibly. Garza hasn’t been as unstoppable as he was in the beginning of the year but he’s still impressive. A relevant question to ask is what happened to Garza? Is he tired? Does he have an undisclosed injury? In his first 10 games of the year, Garza played 29 minutes per game shooting 61.1% from the field including 48.6% from 3-point range. He added 9.6 rebounds per game with two blocks and only about one turnover per game.
In his last nine games this year, Garza’s usage has increased to 31 minutes per game but almost every other major statistical category has declined. His field goal percentage dropped almost 6 points to 54.9% while his 3-point success rate declined NINE points to 39.1%. His rebounds decreased, blocks decreased and turnovers decreased. Is Garza tired? Or is Big Ten competition bringing Garza back to earth? I’d venture to stay it is a mixture of both but we will have a real clear view by the end of the year.
The Hawkeyes have to be determined to win this game and stop their biggest slide of the season; losing 4 of 5 in conference play including a four-point loss and two-point loss to Ohio State and Indiana, respectively. Coach Fran McCaffery has a big task ahead of him; find open shots for Garza while making up for Fredrick’s production on the offense and defensive end through a team effort.
PREDICTION: Rutgers Scarlet Knights 79, Iowa Hawkeyes 78