Virginia Basketball: 3 keys to Cavaliers taking down No. 17 Florida State

2. In trying to keep up with Florida State’s fast-paced offense, the Cavaliers will have to rely on their outside game

The Seminoles and Cavaliers are nearly evenly matched when it comes to their offensive numbers – by way of shooting.  Both Florida State and Virginia rank first and second – respectively – in the ACC in offensive efficiency, albeit by a fairly wide margin (115.0 for FSU to 111.6 for UVA).

By way of shooting percentages, however, the two are almost identical.  The Seminoles are the conference’s best long-range team, draining three-pointers at a 41.8% clip – and the Cavaliers are right behind them at 41.2%.  Meanwhile, both teams trail just Notre Dame in 2P%, with Florida State coming in at 55.0% and Virginia at 54.5% – the second and third-best marks in the ACC, respectively.

There are some differences offensively, of course – the Seminoles are first in the ACC in points per game at 80.4, while Virginia is 12th at 67.7.  Contrarily, the Cavaliers have been more efficient, scoring 1.04 points per possession this season to Florida State’s mark of 0.96.

But there might not be a more telling stat than Florida State’s defensive average from beyond the arc.  By way of points per possession, both teams are nearly identical – Florida State is holding teams to 0.87 PPP, and Virginia is slightly better at 0.86.  However, the Seminoles are also giving up 70.2 points in ACC play, which ranks seventh – while the Cavaliers lead the conference in defensive PPG at just 57.5.

A primary reason for this is because the Seminoles allow teams to shoot fairly well from beyond the arc.  There is not a better defensive team inside in the ACC than Florida State, allowing teams to shoot just 46.3% on two-pointers – but Virginia is right behind them at 47.2%.  From beyond the arc, however, the Cavaliers are second at 30.0% – trailing just Louisville – while Florida State is several spots behind at sixth, giving up a clip of 33.2%.

Thinking of Virginia as a three-point shooting team seems a bit bizarre, but it is where 41.4% of their offense has come from in ACC play – the second-highest mark in the conference.  For context, just 47.3% of their offense comes on two-pointers – which ranks 12th.  In Virginia’s most recent outing against UNC, the Cavaliers actually made more three-pointers (10-22) than two-pointers (9-26).  They nearly did that against Pittsburgh just a week prior, hitting 12 three-pointers to 13 two-pointers.

This will be as much of an offensive test for Virginia as it is a defensive test – and it begins with carving Florida State’s average three-point defense.  Luckily, the Cavaliers feature Sam Hauser, Jay Huff, and Trey Murphy III – all long-range shooters who maintain marks of at least 43.9% from outside, with the latter two checking in in the top 35 nationally at 47.3% and 48.7%, respectively.  Those three must get hot from beyond the arc if the Cavaliers hope to escape with a win.