NCAA Basketball: Bellarmine, Big Ten, and hot seat in roundtable questions

5. Between Ohio State, Illinois, and Michigan, who is least likely to make the Final Four?

Stevenson

Ugh, I’m gonna go with Ohio State. They are really good on offense but I’m not sure if I trust their defense that ranks 61st in the country.

Tineo

With the inconsistency, my pick is Illinois. What has me skeptical is their ability to consistently play at an elite level. If a team gets hot from beyond the arc, will they be able to replicate the success?

The Fighting Illini are coming off OT games against two of the weaker teams within the conference in Nebraska and Indiana. This is also the same Illinois team that beat Wisconsin by 15, handled Iowa, and blasted Minnesota.

The last remaining major test for Illinois is a road trip to Columbus on March 6. Due to inconsistency and not a stellar defense, I believe Illinois is the least likely to make it.

Zacher

I’m still not completely sold on Illinois.  The Fighting Illini are legit, there is no doubt about that, and the two-man tandem of Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn is as deadly of a guard/center combo as I have ever seen in college basketball.  They absolutely have the talent to make a Final Four run, and all three of these teams are capable of winning a national title.

But there’s just something I can’t shake about the Illini, particularly by way of how close some of their most recent games have been.  Three of their last four games have been decided by five points or less – Iowa, Indiana, and Nebraska – and the latter two came down to overtime.  Plus, that loss to Maryland last month still hurts, and the Fighting Illini already owns a head-to-head loss – at home – to Ohio State.

Ohio State and Michigan have been throttling teams.  The Wolverines have had just one single-digit game this calendar year in their comeback win at Wisconsin, which was impressive on its own after their long layoff.  The Buckeyes have had a few more games in single-digits as of late, but they dismantled Indiana and handled Maryland, both teams the Illini struggled with.  The only wiggle room Illinois has, comparatively, is that they rolled over Penn State whereas the Buckeyes struggled with the Nittany Lions – but that’s about the extent of it.

Illinois’ other issue is that they are very Dosunmu-centric, meaning shutting him down creates substantial problems for the Illini’s offense.  That’s not a knock against Cockburn, who has been sensational as of late – but it’s no coincidence that some of Dosunmu’s poor shooting nights have been deadly for Illinois.  He shot 18.2% in the overtime win over IU, 37.5% in the loss to Ohio State, and 33.3% in the loss to Baylor – some of his worst shooting percentages this season, and some of Illinois’ worst games this year.

If Trent Frazier and Adam Miller are able to contribute, then that allows Dosunmu to afford a little leeway – but then it becomes a team effort, something that Ohio State and Michigan are already doing on a nearly consistent basis.  Illinois needs to start seeing more games like that, and they have gotten that in their five-game winning streak – but they need to keep it up in order to reach the Final Four.

Zinkula

Michigan has a super talented roster, and the team’s performance (14-1) has provided little reason to doubt the Wolverines. Additionally, I’ve been a bit skeptical of Ohio State’s talent level all season, but the results speak for themselves. The Buckeyes have road victories over Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Rutgers, and Maryland (wow!). This team is for real.

I think Illinois is the least likely of this trio to make the Final Four. In some ways, Ayo Dosunmu is the Kemba Walker-like guard who might be able to carry the Illini in March. Kofi Cockburn is a solid force on the interior as well. But while this one-two punch might be enough, I just don’t trust the rest of Illinois’s supporting cast.

Andre Curbelo and Adam Miller are both only freshmen, and Trent Frazier has been inconsistent. The team’s subpar performance against Nebraska showed what can happen when only Dosunmo and Cockburn come to play.