UConn Basketball: 3 keys to Huskies upsetting No. 10 Villanova

2. A key area in Villanova’s four-game series was their 2P% – and the Huskies will need to shut them down inside

There is not a team in the Big East that relies more on outside shooting than the Wildcats.  Villanova sees a whopping 41.4% of their point distribution come from long-range, compared to just 39.6% – the lowest mark in the conference – on two-pointers.

That translates to Villanova’s averages in Big East play, where they rank first in 3P% at 39.4% – but also a solid fifth in 2P% at 49.8%.  Naturally, this means the Huskies should focus more on defending from long-range – but this game is very much a “pick your poison” for UConn.  The Huskies are solid at defending inside and outside the arc, ranking fourth inside at 46.6% and fifth outside at 33.8%.

But UConn’s defense has been more forceful from long range, allowing teams to score just 28.6% of their points from three – the second-best mark in the Big East.  By comparison, teams see 50.9% of their point distribution come on two-pointers, which ranks fourth.

What is critical to keep in mind regarding UConn entering this game is that they are coming off back-to-back wins where the Huskies held their opponents below their season-average in two-point percentage – with Xavier shooting 42.9%, nearly 8% worse than their Big East mark – and Providence shooting over 11% worse than their average, having shot just 37.0% inside.

Coincidentally, Villanova’s percentages inside also reflect whether they lost or won in their last four outings – making this all the more crucial for the Huskies.  In the wins over Marquette and Georgetown, the Wildcats shot 65.6% and 48.3%, respectively, inside.  Contrarily, in the losses to Creighton and St. John’s, Villanova recorded clips of 43.8% and 37.5%, respectively.

Shutting Villanova down inside, obviously, begins with Jeremiah Robinson-Earl.  Robinson-Earl is the team’s best two-point shooter at 56.6% (81-143) and is the team’s leading scorer at 15.6 points per game.  It is no coincidence that Robinson-Earl struggled to shoot the ball in Villanova’s last two losses, shooting a combined 5-27 from the floor – while being 15-24 in the wins over Marquette and Georgetown.

As crucial as it is to shut down Gillespie at the guard position, it is also vitally important for the Huskies to lock down Villanova’s posts.  That begins with the frontcourt of Adama Sanogo, Isaiah Whaley, and Tyler Polley – and it must lead to Robinson-Earl being ineffective on the offensive end.