NCAA Basketball: Michigan/Ohio State recap, at-large hopes among key questions

2. Between Duke, Michigan State, and Kentucky, who is most likely to find a way to make the NCAA Tournament?

Brown

To answer this question, you have to look at each team’s remaining schedule.

For the Duke Blue Devils to make the NCAA Tournament, they have to win out the rest of the way. For them and Michigan State, it may be difficult. The Blue Devils face Syracuse, Louisville, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina to finish the regular season. The only slip-up I can see them having is against Syracuse, who is also on a three-game winning streak. It’s possible that the Orange could upset them at Cameron Indoor.

Buddy Boeheim is coming off of a 29-point outing against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The Orange have four other guys that could hurt an opposing defense, including Alan Griffin and Quincy Guerrier, who average a combined 30 points and 16 rebounds. If they upset Duke, that would be a massive win for late in the season for the Orange.

Outside of that, I don’t see Georgia Tech or Louisville presenting any problems for Duke. A win at North Carolina would be a nice touch to a roller-coaster season for them.

For Michigan State, the rest of their schedule is one big yikes. They play No. 5 Illinois, No. 4 Ohio State, Maryland, Indiana, and Michigan twice. If they don’t come out with a losing record in that span, I’d be surprised. All of those teams are getting hot at the right time, and the Spartans have been so-so the entire season.

The Kentucky Wildcats have the easiest path to the NCAA Tournament. They play Florida and Ole Miss to close out their schedule, and I think they could make some noise in the SEC Tournament.

Tineo

Kentucky has entirely too many losses and Michigan State needs to win the conference to make it. The Big 10 is so deep, that I doubt the Spartans will win it. However, Duke has the best chance to make it. With the departure of Jalen Johnson, it’s clear that Duke is a much better team.

Since he “opted out”, Duke smashed Wake Forest and is coming off a big win over No. 7 Virginia. They have four games left, with three they are more than capable of winning. They lost a nailbiter to North Carolina on February 6, but have a chance to win the second contest.

Matthew Hurt is playing like the best player in the conference and other assets are starting to step up. Jaemyn Brakefield brought energy off the bench, with 11 points and five rebounds on 5-8 shooting in the win over the Cavaliers.

Duke is playing like the best team out of the three right now. The bad losses will obviously hurt them, but they have the best chance of running the table and making the tournament.

Zacher

I’m not convinced that Michigan State should be, at all, in the conversation to make the tournament.  They’re 3-6 in their last nine games, sit 81st in the NET rankings, and are nowhere near the bubble conversation, making the Big Ten Tournament the lone way they can reach March Madness – and considering that involves beating one of, or some combination, of teams like Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa… I could go on and on, and the point still stands.

Kentucky’s also nowhere near the bubble, but their recent play indicates that they are very much capable of making a run in the SEC Tournament.  Those wins over Auburn and Vanderbilt are not necessarily anything to write home about, but it is hard to ignore their most recent 15-point road win at Tennessee, as well as the one-point loss to Arkansas.  The Wildcats’ only kryptonite is having to, possibly, face Alabama, who they have lost to by an average of 15.5 points.

That leaves Duke, who I think is the most likely of the three at this point.  They are somehow, wildly, back on the bubble after what seemed like a doomed season, and – to their credit – the Blue Devils have genuinely looked solid in their last four outings.  They’ve won their last four by an average of almost 14 points per game, they just dominated Syracuse, and that win over Virginia is, obviously, beyond significant for a team that was dead in the water just weeks ago.

Their remaining games can provide a nice boost to their resume, too – particularly, if they hold, their season-closers at Georgia Tech and North Carolina.  If the Blue Devils win out, including over Louisville, then they may just need to win one or two games in the ACC Tournament to feel fairly good about their at-large hopes.

Zinkula

At only 8-13, and only two regular-season games remaining, Kentucky doesn’t have a legitimate case for an at-large bid. The Wildcats winning the SEC tournament isn’t inconceivable, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Further, the team’s impressive road win over Tennessee might get Kentucky fans excited, but the Volunteers have been subject to head-scratching games all season.

With back-to-back wins over Indiana and Illinois, Michigan State is trending in the right direction and has several opportunities left to enhance its resume: Ohio State (H), Maryland (A), Indiana (H), Michigan (A), and Michigan (H). For this reason, the Spartans still have a chance at an at-large, but I’m skeptical they’re good enough to win more than two of their five remaining games. It might take at least three wins to secure a bid, and in the competitive Big Ten, there’s no reason to except a conference tournament run.

If Duke wins its last three games against Louisville (H), Georgia Tech (A), and North Carolina (A), the Blue Devils could improbably secure an at-large bit. A perfect 3-0 might not even be required, as ESPN’s Joe Lunardi already has Duke in his “First Four Out.”

Coach K’s squad is playing better lately, the predictive metrics don’t hate them (30th in KenPom), and the team shouldn’t be more than a few point underdogs in any of its remaining games. If the Blue Devils fail to improve its at-large case, the ACC isn’t particularly strong this year, making a conference tournament victory a possibility. So I guess my answer is DUKE.

Loose

Due to Kentucky’s abysmal record and Michigan State’s tough remaining schedule, it’s easy to say Duke. When you consider how the Blue Devils have been playing lately, it’s even more clearly them who have a shot. They just beat Virginia, playing much better ball. If they continue this hot streak through the end of the season, Duke will be in the Dance.