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Maryland Basketball: Analyzing Terrapins 2021 March Madness resume

By Karl Heiser

COLLEGE PARK, MD - FEBRUARY 02: The Maryland Terrapins huddle during a college basketball game against the Purdue Boilermakers on February 2, 2021 at Xfinity Center in College Park, Maryland. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
COLLEGE PARK, MD - FEBRUARY 02: The Maryland Terrapins huddle during a college basketball game against the Purdue Boilermakers on February 2, 2021 at Xfinity Center in College Park, Maryland. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) /
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Maryland Basketball is coming off their fourth consecutive victory in Big Ten play, elevating them to eighth place in a stacked conference. With three games left to go in the regular season, the Terrapins have been in the NCAA Tournament bubble discussion for weeks. Their recent winning streak has made their standing more secure, but how does their resume stack up for Selection Sunday?

Maryland Basketball: Best Wins

Big Ten play has provided Maryland with some solid wins against quality opponents. On Dec. 28, they defeated Wisconsin on the road by six points. Although the Badgers have taken a few big steps back in their play, this was a top-10 win at the time and they are still favorably appraised in most analytical systems.

On Jan. 10, the Terps defeated another Big Ten powerhouse when they eked out a close game on the road versus Illinois, 66-63. This win aged very well as the Fighting Illini have since improved on the No. 12 ranking they held at the time the game was played.

Maryland Basketball: Worst Losses

Most Big Ten losses aren’t as catastrophic as they might seem given the strength of the conference. When the vast majority of your losses are against tournament-worthy teams, you’re probably in a good spot. However, Maryland has still posted some head-scratchers this season. On Dec. 9, the Terps lost by 16 points to Clemson. Don’t get me wrong, Clemson is a pretty good team, but they haven’t been ranked in a good while and seem to have already peaked.

Feb. 5, Penn State defeated Mark Turgeon’s squad by five points. While the Haslametrics model will tell you that the Nittany Lions aren’t all that bad, I can’t give the benefit of the doubt to an 8-13 team that is third-to-last in the conference.

Maryland Basketball: The Projections

The Terrapins are currently projected as a No. 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament by Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology, Haslametrics, and Heat Check CBB resident bracketologist Lukas Harkins. While they are still safe based on these projections, a couple more losses could put them right back in the bubble discussion.

Per KenPom, Maryland is 37th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 27th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, good for a combined ranking of 29. Only two teams above UMD in KenPom have had a more difficult strength of schedule – Rutgers, and Purdue.

Maryland Basketball: The Verdict

The Terrapins will face Michigan State, Northwestern, and Penn State to close out the regular season. All of these are winnable games against teams below Maryland in the conference standings. However, Michigan State is coming off back-to-back top-five victories and the Nittany Lions already defeated the Terrapins this season.

It’s definitely within the realm of possibility that the Terps drop one, potentially two, of these games. In that scenario, the Terrapins would find themselves squarely on the bubble yet again, but would probably still garner an at-large bid based on the strength of their schedule and their list of quality wins.

Worst-case scenario, which I find extremely unlikely, is that the Terps fall to Northwestern and lose out. In that case, Maryland would likely need to pick up one more win in the Big Ten tournament to definitively secure an at-large bid.

Next. Predicting Winners of 2021 Conference Tournaments. dark

Maryland will host the Michigan State Spartans (13-9, 7-9 Big Ten) on February 28 at 2 PM.

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