As March Madness approaches, it’s time to start thinking about which teams are capable of making a surprise run. Which squads fit the bill?
Who will be this season’s “Cinderella” team? Along with “Who will win it all?”, this might be the most frequently asked question come NCAA Tournament time. Finding the answer isn’t so easy, however.
First, it’s worth remembering that depending on one’s definition of “Cinderella”, there isn’t actually one every season. In the 18 tournaments since 2001-02, nine teams have made the Final Four that entered the tournament ranked outside the top 20 in KenPom (equivalent of one every two seasons). 2017-18 Loyola Chicago was the most recent to do so.
Do the above nine teams have anything in common that might help one identify the next Cinderella squad? Two things stand out.
1. 8/9 teams entered the tournament ranked 44th or better in KenPom. 2010-11 VCU (88th!) was the lone exception.
2. While none of the nine Cinderellas entered the tournament with a top 30 offense, 7/9 had a top 30 defense.
Perhaps it’s just a coincidence, but maybe having a strong defense makes a team more likely to make a surprise run in March. Who fits the profile this season? The below teams are ranked between 21st and 44th in KenPom AND have a top 30 defense.
Tennessee: 24th overall, 6th in defense
The Volunteers have performed below expectations in SEC play. Nevertheless, if the freshmen duo of Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer can play to their potential — and Victor Bailey can keep raining from three (19-34 in last four games) — Tennessee will be dangerous.
Clemson: 38th overall, 11th in defense
The Tigers haven’t been a great 3-point shooting team this season but have been knocking down shots lately (last four games: 11-22, 7-23, 9-18 & 10-23). Given that Clemson attempts 43.3% of its shots from downtown (42nd-nationally), improved shooting could transform the team’s offense.
Rutgers: 26th overall, 12th in defense
The Scarlet Knights have had moments this season when they’ve looked like a top ten team, but inconsistent shooting has held them back (249th in 3PT%, 338th in FT%). Ron Harper Jr. has struggled recently in particular, entering the team’s most recent game against Indiana in a 2-32 slump from downtown. He managed to break through with a 4-7 performance against the Hoosiers, however, and it would be huge if he can return to his early-season form.
Texas Tech: 23rd overall, 19th in defense
The Red Raiders’ last NCAA two tournaments resulted in a title game appearance (2018-19) and an Elite 8 (2017-18). With Chris Beard at the helm, Texas Tech can’t be counted out.
Oklahoma State: 36th overall, 20th in defense
With the presumptive No. 1 overall pick in Cade Cunningham on the roster, the Cowboys will be a scary draw. In the team’s most recent game against Oklahoma, Cunningham became the 2nd player this season to have at least 40 points and 10 rebounds (South Dakota’s Stanley Umude the other).
USC: 21st overall, 21st in defense
With another stud freshman in Evan Mobley manning the interior, the Trojans boast the 2nd-tallest team in the nation per average height (Florida State 1st). This size advantage could help USC overwhelm smaller opponents in the tournament.
North Carolina: 34th overall, 22nd in defense
The Tar Heels have been inconsistent this season, but the team is No. 1 in the country at offensive rebounding at 40.1% (grabbed 52.6% in win vs. Florida State). For this reason alone, North Carolina is capable of hanging with any team that is vulnerable on the defensive glass. If it gets the right matchups, a deep tournament run isn’t out of the question.
BYU: 22nd overall, 26th in defense
Per KenPom, the Cougars have the program’s best defense since 2011-12. BYU has been lights out from downtown lately, shooting a combined 76/159 (47.8%) over its last seven games. If the team keeps anything close to this up, it’s definitely capable of making noise in March.
Maryland: 29th overall, 27th in defense
The Terrapins‘ heavy utilization of “small ball” lineups — with Donta Scott the tallest player at 6-7 — makes the team difficult to prepare for in a tournament setting. Mark Turgeon is an underrated coach that will have his team ready to play.
Florida: 27th overall, 28th in defense
The Gators have a lot of talent on the roster but have been inconsistent all season. When things come together — as they did in the team’s road win over West Virginia — Mike White’s squad can be dangerous.
Connecticut: 28th overall, 30th in defense
With James Bouknight back in the picture, the Huskies have a player capable of dropping 30-plus on a given night. He might not be Kemba Walker, but he’s capable of leading Connecticut to success come March.
Maybe no team will make a Cinderella run to the Final Four this season. If this does happen, however, I won’t be surprised if it comes from one of the nine above squads.
(Credit to KenPom and sports-reference for statistics)