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Atlantic Sun Basketball: 2021 Conference Tournament preview, predictions

By David Mullen

LYNCHBURG, VA - FEBRUARY 22: The AtlanticSun logo on the floor during a college basketball game between the Liberty Flames and the North Alabama Lions at Vines Center on February 22, 2021 in Lynchburg, Virginia. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
LYNCHBURG, VA - FEBRUARY 22: The AtlanticSun logo on the floor during a college basketball game between the Liberty Flames and the North Alabama Lions at Vines Center on February 22, 2021 in Lynchburg, Virginia. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) /
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Atlantic Sun Basketball Kennesaw State Owls (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
Atlantic Sun Basketball Kennesaw State Owls (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) /

Atlantic Sun Bracketology

In 2019, Liberty was a 12 seed as the Atlantic Sun Conference Champion. Based on current NET ratings and strength of schedule, Atlantic Sun Conference should not expect anything higher than a twelve seed and even that may be a stretch. Liberty is currently 90th in NET while Bellarmine comes in at 158 and Lipscomb is at a disappointing 227. If the champion is Liberty or Lipscomb, expect a 14 or 15 seed. If the champion is Bellarmine, we may see a 16 seed.

First Round

Thursday, March 4th GAME 1: #1 Liberty vs. #8 Kennesaw State

Kennesaw State has averaged a paltry 65.7 points per game on their way to one conference win in 14 tries. Liberty, meanwhile, leads the Atlantic Sun in points per game with 74.9 and happens to be one of the best defensive teams in the conference, only allowing 58.9 points per game.

Liberty 85, Kennesaw State 68

Thursday, March 4th GAME 2: #4 North Florida vs. #5 North Alabama

North Florida and North Alabama are evenly matched but the key to the game will be whether or not North Alabama’s defense shows up. They’ve allowed 68.9 points per game while North Florida has scored 70 points per game. North Alabama has been on a skid since their late January win against North Florida. Since then, they lost seven straight games until their win in the regular-season finale against Lipscomb. North Alabama will maintain their slide and North Florida will take advantage.

North Florida 70, North Alabama 65

Thursday, March 4th GAME 3: #3 Lipscomb vs. #6 FGCU

Lipscomb had mixed results against Florida Gulf Coast University during the season. Their split season series revealed lopsided wins for each team starting with a 79-69 FGCU win and ending the next night with a 71-56 Lipscomb win. Lipscomb is coming off of a seven-point regular-season finale loss against North Alabama which may play against their psyche.

FGCU has played one game since a three-week COVID pause kept the team out of competition from February 7th through February 25th. We have seen a pause negatively affect other basketball teams and this will be no different.

Lipscomb 78, FGCU 72

Thursday, March 4th GAME 4: #2 Bellarmine vs. #7 Stetson

Bellarmine, like Florida Gulf Coast University, is coming off of a pause only to play one game and head into the Atlantic Sun tournament as the number two seed. Their first game back came against top-seeded Liberty and the Flames easily handled the Knights with a 16 point win. Again, these pauses really hamper the flow of teams, offensively and defensively. Bellarmine has been Stetson’s kryptonite though, handing them back-to-back losses by five and 11 points respectively. An interesting dichotomy but the hot hand wins.

Stetson 68, Bellarmine 67

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