Indiana vs. Purdue: 2020-21 college basketball game preview, TV schedule

With a busy Saturday slate ahead, an in-state showdown is set in the Big Ten between the Indiana Hoosiers and the Purdue Boilermakers.

TV schedule: Saturday, March 6, 2:00 pm ET. TBD between ESPN / ESPN2

Arena: Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana

In a duel of two in-state squads on drastically different trajectories, the Indiana Hoosiers will look to end a disappointing regular season with a must-win over a surging, nationally-ranked Purdue Boilermakers squad in Big Ten action.

It was not that long ago that the Hoosiers (12-13) were vying for an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament, sitting at 12-9 fresh off a double-digit win over Minnesota and with victories over Stanford, Maryland, and Iowa – twice – under their belt.  But since rolling past Minnesota on February 17th, Indiana has undergone a four-game losing streak, comprising of double-digit losses to Rutgers and Michigan with Michigan State bookended on both sides.

Indiana’s most recent loss came to the Spartans on Tuesday, in a 64-58 tilt that showcased several of the issues plaguing the Hoosiers as of late.  Indiana saw just one player – Rob Phinisee – reach double-digits with 16, all the while being the lone Hoosier to make a three-pointer, as Indiana finished an abysmal 2-20 from the perimeter.

More than anything, offensive woes have been the dagger for Indiana’s postseason aspirations.  During the four-game losing streak, the Hoosiers are averaging just 62.25 points per game and 0.93 points per possession – on abysmal shooting clips of 43.8% (2PT, 67-153) and 25.0% (3PT, 18-72).  The Hoosiers were by no means bad on the defensive end – they held Michigan State to just 44.4% inside and 23.5% outside – but their poor offensive showing, paired with allowing the Spartans to win the game from outside the arc, doomed Indiana when they needed a win the most.

Now, Indiana will clash with a Purdue team that has, arguably, flown under the national radar more than any other power conference team.  Sitting with a national ranking of 23rd – their highest all season – the Boilermakers (17-8) have quietly catapulted themselves into fourth-place in the deep Big Ten, and are currently riding a four-game win-streak that consists of victories over Michigan State, Nebraska, and Penn State – all by double-digits – and, most recently, a narrow win over nationally-ranked Wisconsin.

Purdue’s recent success has come from a balanced offensive onslaught that relies substantially on shots inside the arc.  To put that into context: in their four-game win streak, the Boilermakers have featured a different leading scorer across all four games.  Those have been Trevion Williams (28 against MSU), Jaden Ivey (15 against Nebraska), Sasha Stefanovic (16 against PSU), and Zach Edey (21 against Wisconsin).  Much of that offense has come inside, where Purdue is a blistering 84-146 (57.5%) across the four-game stretch.

The Boilermakers – who have been one of the better defensive teams in the Big Ten – uncharacteristically struggled to keep Wisconsin down in their meeting, with the Badgers averaging 1.11 points per possession and actually tying Purdue from the floor, 53-53.  Purdue’s offense was just better, however – the Boilermakers maintained marks of 1.18 PPP, 18 assists on 24 made field goals, and 20-made freebies to Wisconsin’s 16.

These two squads met earlier this season on January 14th, in what was an 81-69 rout in favor of Purdue in Indiana’s Assembly Hall.  Despite being one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the Big Ten, the Boilermakers recorded their best shooting performance in three years, going 11-17 (64.7%) while holding Indiana to just 3-18 (16.7%) from the same area.

Three-point shooting was not even where the game’s best head-to-head battle came from, either.  Instead, Purdue’s Trevion Williams and Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis – two of the best players in all of college basketball – scored 22 and 25, respectively, to lead their teams, with all of their points coming inside the perimeter or from the charity stripe.

The Boilermakers have not necessarily experienced that great of a three-point performance since then, meaning inside play will, again, be the theme of this rematch.  Both teams thrived inside the paint in their last tilts, with Indiana outscoring Michigan State, 28-20, while Purdue held a dominant 36-20 edge in points in the paint.

To add some fuel onto the fire – the Hoosiers have not beaten Purdue since February 20th, 2016.  They have now dropped eight-straight games to the Boilermakers, and – with Indiana struggling mightily – all the signs point to this being the ninth-straight.  In seven of their last eight games, the Hoosiers are allowing teams to shoot at least 50.0% inside – which means, barring another bizarre three-point shooting night from Purdue, the Boilermakers will have every opportunity to capitalize inside courtesy of the post play of Williams and Edey.

Because of their four-game slide, there is not much – if at all – any opportunity for the Hoosiers to place themselves back in the bubble conversation.  But making some noise in the Big Ten Tournament could help launch them back into the potential teams – and a win over Purdue in the regular season finale would be a substantial start in making that happen.  However, again – with the way both teams are playing as of late, it seems nearly impossible for Indiana to break history and finally topple Purdue.

Prediction: Purdue 73 – Indiana 65