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Big Ten Basketball: 2021 conference tournament preview and predictions

By Trevor Sinodhinos

WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 12: Big Ten logo on the floor before the Big Ten Men's Basketball Final against the Wisconsin Badgers and Michigan Wolverines at the Verizon Center on March 12, 2017 in Washington, DC. The Wolverines won 71-56. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) *** Local Caption ***
WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 12: Big Ten logo on the floor before the Big Ten Men's Basketball Final against the Wisconsin Badgers and Michigan Wolverines at the Verizon Center on March 12, 2017 in Washington, DC. The Wolverines won 71-56. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** /
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Big Ten Basketball Michigan State Spartans (Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images)
Big Ten Basketball Michigan State Spartans (Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images) /

Bracketology

Needing the automatic bid: Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Minnesota

Might as well group Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, and Minnesota together as teams that need to win the Big Ten Tournament so they can get the automatic bid into the NCAA Division I Tournament. Even though Minnesota has captured four victories from the 14 Quad 1 games they have played, ending the season on an eight-game losing streak has done substantial damage to their resume.

Penn State managed a victory over Wisconsin that is the highlight of their three Quad 1 wins, but their 7-12 conference record has forced them to need to win the tournament. Nebraska managed to win back-to-back games versus Rutgers and Minnesota but their last-place finish in the Big Ten eliminates any chance of an at-large bid.

In addition, Northwestern started Big Ten play with wins versus Michigan State, Indiana, and Ohio State then promptly lost the following 13 games and will now be hard-pressed to win five consecutive in the conference tournament.

Needing more than a win: Indiana, Michigan State

Indiana Basketball’s top sixty spot in the NET will provide them at best an eleven percent chance of getting an at-large bid. A situation that will cause the Hoosiers to need, not just a win, but a quality win. Anything short of a semi-final appearance will see the Hoosiers as a top team in the NIT, a semifinal appearance might be enough for a No.12 seed though.

Michigan State enters the Big Ten Tournament with a 9 -11 conference record and somewhere in the 86 percent neighborhood of getting an at-large bid with a No.11 seed. A loss in the second round would diminish those odds, especially if Indiana is able to advance to the quarter-finals. If the Spartans are indeed able to be the threat to upset Michigan after splitting two late-season games, they would be in line for a No. 10 seed.

All about positioning: Rutgers, Maryland, Wisconsin

From the pre-season to Dec. 21, 2020, Rutgers slowly progressed from No.24 to No.11 in the AP Poll, highlighted by a three-point victory versus Illinois. Even after a five-game losing streak in January, the Scarlet Knights are securely in position for an at-large bid. A loss on Mar. 11 or Mar.12 will not affect their most likely No.9 seed, but if they were to make it to the Big Ten semi-finals, a No.7 seed is not out of the question.

Maryland Terrapins are in a situation not too unlike the Scarlet Knights, their middle-of-the-pack record has them securing an at-large bid. Whether the Terrapins bow out after one or zero victories, their nine or ten seed will not change, Each additional win after the second round however would bump them up a seed capping at a No.7 seed.

A Big Ten Tournament Championship would place Wisconsin in the discussion of a top-ten team in the nation, a conversation they were in as recent as Jan. 18, 2021. The Badger’s top 25 NET ranking places them on the six-line, a finals appearance would get them to a No.5 seed, where a championship would boost them to a four seed.

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