Big 12 Basketball: 2021 Conference Tournament preview and predictions

Team to beat – Baylor Bears

The obvious choice – outside of Gonzaga, there has not been a team more dominant in college basketball than the Baylor Bears.  Ranked second in the nation, Baylor enters the Big 12 Tournament at 21-1 overall and 13-1 in conference play, with the lone smudge on that record coming on February 27th at Kansas – just days after the Bears returned from a COVID-19 pause.

There were, understandably, concerns regarding Baylor and their lackluster performances post-pause – which included a narrow five-point win over Iowa State – but the Bears have quelled any of those worries.  After picking up a significant overtime victory at West Virginia, the Bears cruised past Oklahoma State before closing out the regular season by dismantling Texas Tech, 88-73.

It is no mystery just how deep and deadly the Bears are, particularly by way of their four-guard lineup.  Five different players reached double-figures across those three games – and three of them spanned all three games in Jared Butler, MaCio Teague, and Davion Mitchell.  The Bears are coming off a game where they went 15-24 (62.5%) from long range, spearheaded by Teague’s insane 10-12 three-point clip.

Biggest threat to Baylor – West Virginia Mountaineers

This would have been Kansas if not for the recent news regarding David McCormack and his absence due to COVID-19 protocol.  Instead, the Mountaineers – a team that skidded to end the regular season but still poses a significant threat – are here.  West Virginia heads into postseason play at 18-8 overall and 11-6 in Big 12 play, fresh off a disappointing five-point loss to Oklahoma State to wrap up conference play.

There is no arguing with West Virginia’s pedigree – they swept Texas Tech, split with Oklahoma State, Texas, and Kansas beat VCU, and are still, to date, the only team to lose to Gonzaga by single-digits.  They took Baylor to overtime last week, but have faltered a bit down the stretch, edging past TCU by single-digits before losing to an Oklahoma State team missing its two best players.

Either way, this is a team with a number of proven scorers outside in Miles McBride, Taz Sherman, and Sean McNeil – all guards who have hit 20 points in the past month.  If the Mountaineers hope to stand a chance against Baylor, however – should they meet, anyway – then they will need Derek Culver to step up inside.  Culver was a glaring minus-26 against Baylor last week – and the game shifted greatly in Baylor’s favor when Culver’s backup, Gabe Osabuohien – who was a plus-15 – fouled out.

Team likeliest to surprise – Oklahoma State Cowboys

Much of Oklahoma State’s success in the Big 12 Tournament and – barring any sudden decision by the NCAA regarding their investigation and infractions – the NCAA Tournament will come down to the health of Isaac Likekele and Cade Cunningham, both of whom were out due to injury in the Cowboys’ regular season-ending win over West Virginia.

There are not as many teams in the Big 12 as hot as Oklahoma State, which is sitting at 18-7 overall and 11-7 in conference play, and have won six of their last seven – including wins over Texas Tech and a season-sweep of Oklahoma.  Sandwiched in between is an 11-point loss on the road to Baylor, in a game played without Likekele and where Cunningham – after recording 24 points, seven boards, and four assists – suffered his injury.

Both Cunningham and Likekele have combined for 29.5 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 7.2 assists this season – but that did not stop other Cowboys from stepping up against West Virginia on Saturday.  Four different players reached double-figures, led by Avery Anderson’s first-ever 17-plus point game, where he scored 31 points (10-12 2PT, 1-2 3PT, 8-10 FT).  This is a team that skyrocketed from unranked to 12th in the nation in just a week – and could very much win the Big 12 Tournament.