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WAC Basketball: 2021 Conference Tournament preview and predictions

By Daniel Benjamin

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - MARCH 16: Ivan Aurrecoechea #15 and C.J. Bobbitt #13 of the New Mexico State Aggies celebrate after winning the championship game of the Western Athletic Conference basketball tournament against the Grand Canyon Lopes at the Orleans Arena on March 16, 2019 in Las Vegas, Nevada. New Mexico State won 89-57. (Photo by Joe Buglewicz/Getty Images)
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - MARCH 16: Ivan Aurrecoechea #15 and C.J. Bobbitt #13 of the New Mexico State Aggies celebrate after winning the championship game of the Western Athletic Conference basketball tournament against the Grand Canyon Lopes at the Orleans Arena on March 16, 2019 in Las Vegas, Nevada. New Mexico State won 89-57. (Photo by Joe Buglewicz/Getty Images) /
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WAC Basketball Utah Valley’s guard Trey Woodbury Grand Canyon University
WAC Basketball Utah Valley’s guard Trey Woodbury Grand Canyon University /

Bracketology

The WAC was once considered one of the top mid-major conferences but the league is now consistently a one-bid league. The 2010 NCAA Tournament was the last time that the league received multiple bids. The WAC, which currently ranks 27th in the  NET and RPI, posted a combined 14-37 nonconference record which includes going 0-for-10 in Quad I contests.

New Mexico State has won the WAC Tournament championship in each of the last three years and seven of nine.  The WAC is 65-102 all-time in the NCAA Tournament which includes two Final Four appearances. However, the conference has not won an NCAA Tournament game since the mid-2000s. NMSU is 0-9 in “Big Dance” games as a member of the WAC.

This appears to be a totally wide-open tournament. UTRVG is the only team that appears to have little chance of winning the event. I expect the WAC champion to receive a 14 or 15 seed if the winner is Grand Canyon, Utah Valley, or NM State. But if Cal Baptist or Seattle earns the bid, they will likely be 15 or 16th seed.

Grand Canyon: Bryce Drew has done a fabulous job in his first year with the Antelopes leading them to their first WAC title in eight seasons in the league. While GCU is just 3-3 over its last six games, the Lopes have a victory over Nevada and played Arizona State, Colorado, and San Francisco real tough. They are 137 in NET Rankings and 162 in RPI.

Grand Canyon is a well-balanced team that prefers a slow-paced game though the Antelopes are very strong on the defensive end. The Lopes are also excellent around the rim and share the ball exceptionally well. Alessandro Lever, Jovan Blackshear, and Mikey Dixon along with Midtgaard are averaging double-figures during conference play.

Strengths: Defense, Defending 3-point line, Getting to the free-throw line, keeping teams off the free-throw line, Offensive rebounding, and Defensive rebounding.

Weaknesses: Forcing Turnovers.

Utah Valley: UTU has been inconsistent all year, however, the Wolverines have won five of their last eight contests. The Wolverines are an excellent shooting team that gets to a lot and does an outstanding job protecting the rim. They also have four players who can take over a game on the offensive end — Trey Woodbury, Jamison Overton, Cole, and Aimaq. Utah Valley, which ranks 206 in NET rankings and 196 in RPI, swept Cal Baptist and split with both GCU and New Mexico State.

Strengths: Shooting, 3-point shooting, Sharing the ball, Getting to the foul line, Offensive rebounding, Rim protection, Defense, and Defensive rebounding.

Weaknesses: Turnovers, Forcing turnovers, Free throw shooting, and Fouling.

New Mexico State: NMSU is 7-3 in its last 10 games, which includes splitting its two-game series with Utah Valley.  The Aggies, who are extremely experienced, like to slow things down offensively  They are efficient offensively and do outstanding work on the boards (both ends). Seven players are averaging at least six points a game.

Strengths: Offensive rebounding, Defensive rebounding, Keeping Opponents off the foul line, and Coming up with steals.

Weaknesses: Defense, and Rim protection.

Seattle: The Redhawks split each of their last three series against New Mexico State, Grand Canyon, and Cal Baptist. Trammell and Grigsby are the offensive catalysts and top-scoring duo in the conference and if they get hot, Seattle could make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1969. SU prefers to play an up-tempo style and the Redhawks do an outstanding job at protecting the basketball as well as getting to the free-throw line.

Strengths: Limiting turnovers, Getting to the free-throw line,  Free throw shooting, and Forcing Turnovers.

Weaknesses: Defensive rebounding, Fouling, and Shooting.

Cal Baptist: The Lancers like to play fast and they are an excellent offensive team as they can score inside and out — ranking in the top 5 in the nation in 3-point percentage at 39.6%. Five players average double-figures. CBU gave USC all it could handle in its season-opener.

Strengths: Shooting, Offense, 3-point Shooting, Getting to the free-throw line, and Free throw shooting.

Weaknesses: Defending the 3-point line, Forcing Turnovers, and Rim protection.