Iowa and Illinois matchup in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals; who will make the plays and advance to Sunday’s championship game?
TV schedule: Saturday, March 13, 3:30 pm ET. CBS
Arena: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana
Iowa (21-7) hung on against Wisconsin and now find themselves one step closer to a Big Ten title. The Hawkeyes have gotten fantastic play from Luka Garza and the rest of this talented roster, finishing the regular season by winning seven of their last eight games. Onto the semifinals, can they enact revenge after a late January loss to Illinois?
It’s no surprise that Garza (23.8 ppg, 8.7 rpg) is the player to watch for the Hawkeyes, having just led them with a 24-point effort against Wisconsin. The most prolific basketball player in Iowa history is a force and will go a long way to deciding how these next few weeks go for the Hawkeyes. But he’s not alone, and teams will have to fend with sharpshooters like junior guard Joe Wieskamp (15.0 ppg, 6.6 rpg) and Jordan Bohannon (10.5 ppg, 4.5 apg) among others.
The Big Ten’s third place team currently sits 5th in the AP Top 25 and 4th in KenPom’s most recent release. The Hawkeyes have one of the nation’s most efficient offenses and have likely already locked up a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Perhaps two more wins in the Big Ten Tournament could bump them up to a top seed, but they have to take care of business one game at a time before that point.
What awaits them is a rematch with a red hot Illinois (21-6) team, one that has gotten some fantastic play from its own stars. The Fighting Illini have now won five straight games, including road wins over ranked Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio State teams. The Illini are playing their best basketball at the right time, taking care of Rutgers by 22 points in the Big Ten quarterfinals on Friday.
There is plenty of talent on this Illinois squad, but the two-headed monster of junior guard Ayo Dosunmu (20.9 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 5.2 apg) and sophomore center Kofi Cockburn (17.3 ppg, 9.6 rpg) are worth the price of admission. Dosunmu just had 23 points in the Rutgers wins, while Cockburn had his latest double-double with an 18-point, 12-rebound affair. Consider that this team also has senior guard Trent Frazier (10.6 ppg, 3.0 rpg) and Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year Andre Curbelo (8.8 ppg, 4.2 apg) and there is plenty for defenses to gameplan for.
Illinois sits at #3 in the AP Top 25, 3rd in KenPom, and won more Big Ten conference games than any team in the league this season. Things have really come together for this Illini team, especially these last few weeks. The team is playing their best basketball at the right time and pose a significant challenge both this weekend and in the NCAA Tournament.
For the Hawkeyes, winning the battle of Garza against Cockburn will be a necessity. Garza had 19 points but struggled at times in the first matchup with the Illini. Cockburn and the rest of this defense know they need to defend Garza but be alert, as the Hawkeyes have a talented bevy of long-distance shooters. The Illini defense has been playing fantastically these last few weeks and they’ll win this game if they can pull that off against the nation’s best player.
This is an incredible matchup, a conference semifinal between two top 5 teams that deserve to be ranked that high. Garza and Cockburn will star, but don’t underestimate the impact that Dosunmu can have on this game. He and Frazier both had over 20 points in the first matchup; if the offense can get going, then Iowa’s going to have to find their own touch. This will come down to the wire, but I think the hotter team will pull out another impressive win.