2021 NCAA Tournament: Mount St. Mary’s vs. Texas Southern preview, prediction

March Madness will get underway on Thursday between the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers and Texas Southern Tigers.

TV schedule: Thursday, March 18, 5:10 pm ET. truTV

Arena: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Indiana

After nearly two years, March Madness will finally happen again, with the 2021 NCAA Tournament tipping off with the First Four on Thursday evening, in a mid-major duel between the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers and Texas Southern Tigers.

The Mountaineers (12-10) earned their spot in the tournament after playing Cinderella in the Northeast Conference Tournament last week, entering as the fourth-seed – the lowest in the field – and toppling the regular-season champions in Wagner in the opening round before locking down a high-octane offense in second-seeded Bryant.

Both victories came on the road, with the latter being Bryant’s first home loss all season.  It is the third NEC title for the Mountaineers in the last seven years, but the first under third-year head coach Dan Engelstad.

The architect of the Mount’s romp through the NEC Tournament was junior point guard Damian Chong Qui, one of the best stories in all of college basketball, and a star that is coming off averages of 17.5 points, 5.5 caroms, and 4.5 assists in the pair of tournament victories.  He has not been alone, however –  in addition to Chong Qui, three other Mount players registered double-digits in the wins over Wagner and Bryant, including the reigning NEC Defensive Player of the Year in Nana Opoku, who averaged 16.0 points, 6.0 boards, and 4.0 blocks.

The Mountaineers’ success can almost certainly be traced to their defensive identity.  One of the best defensive teams in the nation, Mount St. Mary’s ranks 17th in points allowed per game, holding teams to just 62.3 – and sitting at 24th in 3P% defense (30.1%) and 31st in 2P% defense (45.6%).  Their offense is not nearly as strong, ranking 287th in offensive efficiency – albeit, the Mountaineers do enjoy success on the offensive glass, bringing down a 59th-best 31.9% of their missed attempts.

Their slow, methodical style of play – which sits 356th in adjusted tempo, just ahead of Virginia for the slowest in Div. I – has been crucial for the Mount in grinding out games and limiting possessions, translating to teams averaging just 58.5 points in victories favoring the Mount.

On the other side is Texas Southern (16-8), a team that – after starting the SWAC season 0-2 – rolled through to the end of the regular season, with the Tigers winning 11 of their last 12 heading into the conference tournament.  As the second-seed, Johnny Jones’ crew coasted through the SWAC Tournament, throttling Alcorn State, edging past Jackson State in overtime, and avenging two regular-season losses to top-seeded Prairie View A&M in a 19-point rout in the title tilt.

Texas Southern’s three wins all featured different stars.  Joirdan Karl Nicholas led the way against Alcorn State, going 11-16 from the field to finish with 24 points, 13 rebounds, and four blocks, while Michael Weathers poured in 30 points (8-14 2PT, 2-3 3PT, 8-8 FT) in the overtime win over Jackson State.  It was a team effort against Prairie View A&M, however, with the entire starting five scoring double-figures, combining for 69 of the Tigers’ 80 points.

The Tigers are below average in terms of efficiency on both ends of the court, but they do rank in the top-100 in points per game, logging an 88th-best 74.8 for the season.  Like the Mount, Texas Southern fares better on the defensive end, ranking 99th in 3P% defense (32.4%) and 23rd in 2P% (45.1%), all the while – again, much like the Mountaineers – demolishing teams on the offensive glass, bring down a 37th-best 32.9% of their attempts.

Where Texas Southern differs dramatically from Mount St. Mary’s is in the pace of play, where the Tigers maintain the 41st-fastest tempo in college basketball, earning 72 possessions per game, taking 16.2 seconds off the shot clock (52nd), and matching that exact number on opponents’ possessions, which is 22nd.  The Tigers’ style of play does not produce much by way of long-range, where Texas Southern ranks among the worst in 3P% – but the Tigers see 59.2% of its offense come from inside the arc, which is 13th-most in Div. I.

This will be a showdown based around athleticism, with each team sporting a starting five that, with the exception of the Mount’s Chong Qui, ranges from 6-4 to 6-9 and ranks in the top 60 in blocks per game.  But in that same vein, this could be a game riddled with turnovers, as Texas Southern turns the ball over 16.0 times (319th) per game, while the Mount is substantially better at 13.1 (172nd) but has fluctuated, having turned the ball over just seven times at Bryant but 18 just days prior at Wagner.

Limiting miscues and not allowing the opposition easy scoring opportunities is crucial for both teams in this game, particularly considering the success teams had in points off turnovers in their respective conference tournaments.  In the SWAC, Texas Southern was actually outscored, 47-44, by the opposition – while the Mount faced a 27-22 deficit.

Where this game will come down to is inside play – and, most specifically, points in the paint and second-chance points.  The Tigers throttled teams in the key, 138-90, but were not nearly as reliant on the offensive glass, outscoring their three opponents, 37-34, in second-chance points.  Contrarily, Mount St. Mary’s was give-or-take, dominating Wagner inside but allowing Bryant to mount a comeback through inside play, and finished with a slight 64-62 edge in the paint – but found great success in building early leads through extra opportunities, outscoring both foes in second-chance, 24-16.

This is a game that could very much come down to the final possession and should serve as the perfect opening to a chaotic 2021 NCAA Tournament.  Both teams struggle on the offensive end but are stellar defensively, but what may ultimately give the Mount an edge is their ability to keep up with a fast-paced team like Texas Southern, which is something they proved in the win over Bryant – but they must value the basketball at all costs, and the Mountaineers’ core group inside, with Opoku spearheading the operation, cannot allow easy opportunities inside the paint.

Prediction: Mount St. Mary’s 72 – Texas Southern 67