2021 NCAA Tournament South Region roundtable, key questions
2. Which double-digit seed can make a Sweet 16 or beyond run?
Zacher
This is tough because I think Winthrop is the best of the double-digit seeds – but I don’t think they can get past Purdue in the Round of 32, or Baylor in the Sweet 16. I’m going to go with Utah State, then. That defense is stifling, ranking eighth in efficiency and fourth in 2P%, and they rank 16th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. They get a Texas Tech team that is abysmal at keeping teams off the offensive glass but thrives at pulling down offensive caroms – an area where the Aggies exceed at preventing teams from succeeding.
That defense will be put to the ultimate test against a wildly efficient offense in either Colgate or Arkansas, and the Aggies do not have the offense to keep up with either. But Neemias Queta himself will give some teams some fits himself, considering the 7-foot center is averaging 15.1 points on a 56.1% clip, along with 10.0 caroms, 2.5 assists, 3.2 blocks, and 1.1 steals.
He is a legitimate beast, and it is no coincidence that a Utah State squad that was thought to be outside of the field come Selection Sunday was actually safely in the tournament all along. They’re a dangerous 20-win squad.
Geller
This is the chalkiest region in my bracket. I have Baylor playing Purdue and Ohio State facing Arkansas. However, I did take Utah State and Winthrop. I think Utah State is a better team, but based on the matchups, Winthrop is my pick. Facing a banged-up Villanova team helps.
If the Eagles can get by Nova, they would take on Purdue most likely. Matt Painter is a good coach and gets a lot of love, but come tournament time, he is susceptible to lose early. This isn’t his best Purdue team by any means, and he’s only reached the Elite Eight once, so I could see him dropping another tournament game rather early.
Tineo
The trendiest pick in the region, by far, has been Winthorp. There is a reason for the Eagles’ hype and their odds of reaching the Sweet 16 being high. Regardless of the competition, you have to respect the Eagles’ dominance against opponents and including what kind of damage they could make with it.
The lone loss came from the expense of North Carolina-Asheville by two, in the second half of a doubleheader.
The Eagles have eight wins by 15 or more, and have a tournament win, with a season-opening win over Southern Conference champion, North Carolina-Greensboro. The Eagles have the best offense in the conference and the rotation is littered with experience.
When it comes to opponents, Winthrop has a much easier slate than other No. 12 seeds. Villanova has not been able to recover after losing Collin Gillespie and lost three of their last four games.
For Purdue, they have been solid throughout the year, but lack an elite area on offense and are not super athletic. Only one player shoots 40% or better from beyond the arc for the Boilermakers in Sasha Stefanovic. Although Trevion Williams is a great player, he tends to turn the ball over too much for a big man and shoots 50% from the field.
Thedinga
The correct answer here is Winthrop, for a whole lot of reasons. Chandler Vaudrin is a name you’ll want to keep track of this March. Vaudrin, paired with Tennessee transfer DJ Burns down low can cause a whole lot of problems.
Villanova without Collin Gillespie is about as good of a first-round matchup Winthrop could have hoped for—plus the likely Purdue matchup in the Round of 32 that is quite friendly as well. Purdue is simply too young to match up with this veteran Winthrop squad who simply knows how to win games. Give me Winthrop to the Sweet 16 in this spot every single time.
Zinkula
12-seed Winthrop is understandably a popular upset pick against an injury-laden Villanova squad (~6.5 point underdogs), giving the team a decent chance at advancing to the Round of 32. While I wouldn’t pick the Eagles to upset Purdue in the 2nd-round, the Boilermakers aren’t a lock to even reach that point.
The team’s 1st round opponent — North Texas — is arguably the best of the 13-seeds, and Purdue is only favored by ~7.5 points. Overall, the combination of a favorable Villanova matchup and the plausibility of facing North Texas in the Round of 32 makes a Winthrop Sweet 16 run a legitimate possibility. The journey would end there, however, because the Eagles won’t be taking down Baylor.