Cleveland State Basketball: Evaluating Vikings heading into Houston matchup

Can Cleveland State pull off the upset against No. 2 seed Houston?

To put it into perspective, you have to first look at Cleveland State as a No. 15 seed. There have only been eight No. 15 seeds that have been victorious in their first-round game of the NCAA Tournament. To put it in further perspective, out of those four games where a No. 15 seed won, two took place in the same NCAA tournament.

It also was eight years ago when those two major upsets occurred when No. 15 seed Norfolk State defeated No. 2 seed Missouri and No. 15 Lehigh beat No. 2 seed Duke in the 2012 NCAA tournament. The most recent No. 15 seed defeating a No. 2 seed happened when Middle Tennessee State shocked No. 2 seed Michigan State in the 2016 NCAA tournament. So it is possible that Cleveland State can defeat Houston but the odds are not in their favor.

The overall record for 15 seeds vs. No. 2 seeds in the NCAA tournament are 8-132. That is a 0.06% chance of a No. 15 seed beating a No. 2 seed. However, the NCAA tournament has changed since 1985 when the tournament expanded to 64 teams and 68 teams in 2011, and the percentage for a No. 15 seed has gone slightly up.

Then there was only one time when a No. 15 seed made it to the Sweet Sixteen by winning two games and that happened in the 2013 NCAA tournament when Florida Gulf Coast defeated Georgetown and then San Diego State before losing to Florida. Can Cleveland State pull an FGCU and make a magical run in the NCAA tournament?

It would be very difficult for the Viking to upset Houston and then defeat the winner of the Clemson and Rutgers game. Is it impossible? No, so there is a chance because as good as the Cougars are, they are beatable as they lost to Tulsa who finished the season 11-12 and in 7th place in the American Athletic Conference and as more witnessed by the shocking loss Houston suffered against East Carolina who finished in the last place in the AAC with a 2-10 conference record. However, Houston has won some pretty big games and has played very well of late.

The Cougars have won their last seven games including having won the AAC conference tournament where they defeated Cincinnati by 37 points in the championship game. Houston has also won 17 of their last 19 games and they can score and put up over 80 points on an opponent to play stellar defense by holding an opponent to 64 or fewer points.

The Cougars have some impressive victories over NCAA and NIT tournament teams Texas Tech, Boise State, SMU, Wichita State, Memphis, and Western Kentucky.  However, Houston is not a huge overpowering team that will be guaranteed to defeat Cleveland State by 20 either.

The expectation should be for the Viking to play a competitive game against Houston. Expecting Cleveland State to pull off the upset is unreasonable and unfair to them. However, Gates has proven that he can coach and he does have a team that can play great defense so an upset would be entirely a shock either. The Vikings also have a tough mindset and they don’t appear to be afraid of higher seeded or ranked teams.  If Cleveland State can slow down Houston’s star player Quentin Grimes and the Cougars high powered offense, then they have a chance.

Realistically, if the Vikings can keep it close and lose by single digits, it would be a very respectable outcome due to them keeping close against a very talented and good Houston team.