Luka Garza and Iowa Basketball looks to avoid upset against Grand Canyon
3. The Hawkeyes cannot afford to fall into a low-scoring affair
The duel between the Hawkeyes and Antelopes will be one of two teams with differing styles and paces of play. Iowa owns an adjusted tempo that sits at exactly 100th in the country, allowing for 70.0 possessions per game – but Grand Canyon maintains one of the slowest at 314th, with just 65.4 possessions.
The Antelopes’ methodical style of play is largely what makes them so successful on the defensive end. Across 16 games this calendar year, Grand Canyon has allowed teams to score over 65 points in just three games – and the Antelopes are holding teams to 61.1 points for the season, the ninth-best mark in the nation. That defense has allowed for Grand Canyon’s offense to thrive, with the Antelopes averaging 75.6 points and maintaining a scoring margin of 14.5 points.
This is concerning for an Iowa team that has seen its offense sputtered at times, which has resulted in the Hawkeyes being in narrow, low-scoring games. That has occasionally paid off – including in a 62-57 win over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament – but at the same time, it has cost the Hawkeyes some wins. With the exception of the Wisconsin win, Iowa has scored less than 70 points in three other games – and lost all three, falling to Indiana twice and once at Michigan.
This game is very much more-so a test for Iowa’s offense than its defense – and given the Hawkeyes’ inconsistency as of late, that could be worrying depending on what Iowa team shows up. If shots are not falling for Iowa, then they will be in a dogfight with a dangerous Grand Canyon squad.
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Again, that begins with Luka Garza inside – and his effectiveness in combatting the Antelopes’ big men. If Grand Canyon is able to get Garza into foul trouble and force Fran McCaffery to utilize a smaller lineup, then the Hawkeyes could be in trouble – but if Iowa is able to get out to a quick, dominant lead courtesy of long-range bombs, then the Hawkeyes should be able to coast to an easy first-round victory.