The 3 seeds in the NCAA Tournament this year are Arkansas, Kansas, Texas, and West Virginia. Nearly all Big 12 teams besides the Razorbacks of the SEC.
Texas is coming off a Big 12 championship while Arkansas and West Virginia are looking to bounce back from disappointing exits in their conference tournaments. Kansas is in a questionable position right now after having to withdraw from the Big 12 tournament and traveling to Indianapolis without a few key players.
Last tournament we saw half the 3 seeds lose in the Sweet 16 to 2 seeds and the other half losing to national champion Virginia. Purdue lost in the Elite 8 to the Wahoos while LSU and Houston’s losses in the sweet 16 came from Michigan State and Kentucky. The Red Raiders of Texas Tech made it all the to the national championship game but couldn’t get over that last hurdle to beat UVA.
19 no. 3 seeds have made it to the final four since 1979 when they began seeding teams.
Out of 164 final four appearances that means that roughly 11.6% of all 3 seeds in the last forty-one years have been in the final four. You could say that means there’s an 11.6% chance a 3 seed wins their region this year which isn’t great odds.
However, a 3 seed has made the final four in the last 3 tournaments (Texas Tech 2019, Michigan 2018, Oregon 2017). Oregon lost in the final four but Michigan and Texas Tech won their national semifinal matchups before ultimately losing in the big one.
I would say that’s how I feel overall about this field of 3 seeds this year. I think at least one and possibly even two no. 3 seeds make the final four this tournament but in the end, I probably wouldn’t put my bet on them to win it all. You never know, last 3 seed to win it all was UCONN 10 years ago when Kemba Walker and the Huskies shook up college basketball and went on an incredible run which included winning the Big East tournament.
If two no. 3 seeds do make the final four it would be the first time that has happened since 2003 when Marquette and Syracuse did so after winning regular-season conference titles and losing in their conference tournaments. Carmelo Anthony and the Orange were in the Big East while Marquette was still in Conference USA. Syracuse went on to win that national championship.
For this year, here’s a buy or sell on the 2021 NCAA tournament 3 seeds making a final four run.