Projecting Alabama Basketball’s path to a 2021 National Championship
Alabama in Sweet 16
If Alabama were to move onto the Sweet 16, there are a total of four potential opponents, the three-seed Texas Longhorns, six-seed BYU Cougars, 11-seed UCLA Bruins, or the 14-seed Abilene Christian Wildcats.
To make this a little simpler, we’re going to go ahead and say Alabama will not be facing the Wildcats of Abilene Christian, and it is more likely they’d face one of the other three teams mentioned above, with Texas being the most likely opponent.
The reason I say Texas is most likely of the four to reach the Sweet 16 is due to the fact that they’re 19-7 on the season, 21st in the NET Rankings, have a combined record of 10-7 against quadrant one and two opponents, and they’re coming off a Big 12 Tournament Championship, beating Oklahoma State and Texas Tech (four and six seeds in the NCAA Tournament) in the process.
As for BYU, the Cougars are 19-6 on the season, 7-3 in their last 10, 20th in the NET Rankings, and hold an 8-6 record against quadrant one and two opponents combined. Like the Longhorns, all of their losses have come against quad one and two opponents, but I believe Texas is a slightly better, and more battle-tested team, and for that reason, it would be a little difficult for the Cougars to advance to the Sweet 16 if they’re able to get past UCLA that is.
UCLA is a team that managed to beat Michigan State in the first four on Thursday night, after trailing by 14 at one point. The Bruins are 18-9 on the season, come in at 41st in the NET Rankings, are 6-9 against quadrant one and two opponents combined, and are 5-5 in their last 10.
Despite their win on Thursday night, the Bruins have had a rough stretch recently and because of that, it will likely be difficult for them to advance to the Round of 32, let alone the Sweet 16.
In the end, I believe it will be Texas who beats BYU in the Round of 32 and advances to the Sweet 16, where they would likely face the Crimson Tide.
Alabama might have a difficult time slowing down Texas’ bigs in Greg Brown, Jericho Sims, and Kai Jones, but I think they’d be able to get it done. Alabama has proved recently that they’re capable of beating good teams and winning close games as we saw in the SEC Tournament when they overcame a large deficit against Tennessee and then won a tight game against LSU.
That being said, I think Alabama will be able to get it done and move onto the Elite Eight for the second time in program history, and their first time since 2004.
Prediction: Alabama 69, Texas 62