1. Few teams rely on long-range bombs quite like Alabama
Per KenPom, the Crimson Tide ranks 15th in the nation in point distribution through three-pointers, where 40.1% of their offense comes from – just 3.3% below their number in two-pointers. That reflects in the number of long-range bombs taken per game, with Alabama launching a whopping 30.0 – the fourth-highest mark in college basketball – and knocking down a fourth-best 10.7 each night.
Already this season, the Crimson Tide have logged bizarre numbers, including a deadly 23 three-pointers in a win over LSU back in January. But the Tide uncharacteristically struggled in their tournament-opening win over Iona, recording just five three-pointers – the second-lowest amount this year – on a season-low 16 attempts.
It is no coincidence that that game was as close as it was, in a 68-55 win for Alabama that was in single-digits with seven minutes left to play. Likewise, it is no wonder that the Tide’s blowout win over Maryland – in a game where Alabama maintained a double-digit lead for nearly the entirety of the second stanza – saw the Tide drain 16 three-pointers, their third-highest mark of the season, on a 48.5% clip.
Five different players made up for those 16 makes, with all five hitting at least two three-pointers each, including Jaden Shackelford – who went 5-8 from the perimeter – and John Petty Jr., who knocked down four long-range bombs. Their performance propelled the Tide’s 3PT% average into the top 100 nationally, at 90th.
Shutting down Alabama’s perimeter game should be UCLA’s top priority, which is worrisome given the Bruins’ defensive average – but their recent performances in the NCAA Tournament present some optimism, as well. Throughout the season, the Bruins have allowed teams to shoot a below-average 34.2% from three – and that mark was substantially worse in Pac-12 play at 37.6%.
But their defense has been substantially better during March Madness, where the Bruins have held Michigan State, BYU, and Abilene Christian – the latter two being teams that rank in the top 60 nationally in 3P% – to clips of 33.3% (6-18), 17.6% (3-17), and 21.1% (4-19). Those latter two performances are their best since holding Seattle and Marquette to similar marks all the way back in early December.
Shutting down Alabama’s potent onslaught from outside begins with containing Shackelford and Petty, meaning the Bruins’ backcourt – mainly comprised of Tyger Campbell, Johnny Juzang, and Jules Bernard – will have their work cut out for them. If they are unable to lock down on the Tide’s outside shooters, this game could quickly turn ugly.