Oregon State Basketball must limit Houston’s rebounding opportunities
3. OSU’s best chance to win this game is to defend
Here is the blunt truth: Oregon State will not win this game on the offensive end. The Cougars rank 45th in the nation in points per game at 77.4, and rank in the top ten in numerous defensive categories, including FG%, 2P%, and 3P% – and second in points allowed at 57.9.
By contrast, the Beavers are an average 187th in points per game at 70.9, but they are substantially better defensively, holding teams to an even 68.0 points. If this game turns into an up-and-down track meet, Oregon State will lose – but if they grind this game out and force Houston to work to score on every possession, then they will have a shot.
Oregon State has hit numerous dry spells throughout the tournament, particularly in the second half of games – but the Beavers’ most recent performance against Loyola Chicago was the worst yet, having scored their lowest output in over a month after posting just 24 points at the intermission.
The Cougars have not necessarily been stellar offensively either, considering they have logged 63 and 62 in their last two outings – but their defensive numbers indicate that the Beavers, who have struggled mightily in long stretches to produce, could be in for the long haul – especially considering the Cougars have held their three NCAA Tournament foes to 54.0 points on 0.85 points per possession.
What makes Houston especially dangerous is their ability to lock down offensive threats, which is exactly what they did to Syracuse’s Buddy Boeheim, who – entering the game against Houston may have been the tourney’s hottest shooter after scoring 55 total points against San Diego State and West Virginia – was held to 3-13 from the floor and just 12 points, his lowest output since February 27th. That could happen again with Oregon State’s Ethan Thompson, courtesy of Houston’s ability to swap a number of athletic guards on him – and that could doom the Beavers’ offense.
The Beavers are a mixed bag defensively, ranking 225th in 2P% defense but a stellar 24th in 3P% – which is, coincidentally, where Houston sees most of its offense come from. Both teams are among the slowest in the nation tempo-wise, meaning this game could be a low-scoring affair that finishes in the 50s or 60s – and that actually favors Oregon State.
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While the battle between Quentin Grimes and Ethan Thompson could be a thrilling offensive clash, this tilt will ultimately come down to defense. These two squads have proven to be two of the best defensive teams in the NCAA Tournament, and the winner could be decided by who controls the boards. For the Beavers, grinding out this game and forcing Houston to make mistakes on the defensive end will be their biggest allies – and what could catapult their Cinderella run to the Final Four.