Baylor vs. Houston: 2021 Final Four game preview, TV schedule, predictions

Two on the rise programs in Houston and Baylor are looking to cement a spot in the National Championship game for the first time in decades.

Date: April 3, 2021. 5:14 p.m. ET. CBS.

Arena: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana.

Line: Baylor -5. (according to DraftKings Sportsbook)

This NCAA Tournament has been nothing short of incredible and the nostalgia that the madness has brought has shown through the viewership. Two Mid-Majors, an 11-seed, and a Big 12 school headline the Final Four.

In a normal season, it would be clear that one of those is not like the other. However, it makes perfect sense for the 2021 standard.

Both, Baylor and Houston, come in with two of the grittiest and most determined defenses in the entire country. Both of them showed their aggression in their Elite Eight contests.

For Baylor, they were pegged against another lengthy guard team in Arkansas. Both Moses Moody and Jalen Tate are 6’6 guards, and take advantage of their length with tipped passes, leading to scorers.

However, it was the Bears that took passes away with nine steals, including a season-high four from Adam Flagler off the bench.

Ever since the start of the tournament, the Bears have been playing like their Pre-COVID form. After struggling for consistency down the stretch of the regular season, they have found their footing. Among the best benches in the country has been productive and an unsung hero has been MaCio Teague.

Teague has multiple 20+ point games in the NCAA Tournament, including an 8-18, 22 point performance against Arkansas.

With Butler and Mitchell garnering more NBA attention, it gives Teague an opportunity for opponents to focus less on the UNC Asheville transfer. Fortunately for Teague, he takes advantage of poor defense. Teague has flirted around 40% from beyond the arc throughout and is able to grab rebounds at a high rate for a 6’4 guard at 4.1 rebounds per game.

The third “best” player on the team in Teague is no slouch, as he drained 10 three-pointers and a total of 35 points in the Bears season finale against Texas Tech.

Another key aspect for the Bears has been their ability to keep the ball. In the previous three games, Baylor has been in the single digits in turnovers, with having just two in the first half against Arkansas.

For the Cougars, it has been Quentin Grimes that has been the offensive spark throughout the majority of the season.

Grimes is familiar with Baylor, as the decorated junior spent his first season of eligibility in the Big 12, at Kansas. Although he was held to single digits in the two meetings in 2019, he should be expected to shoot and score significantly more for a Houston win.

Similar to Baylor, Houston has a trio of guards of their own with Grimes, Marcus Sasser, and Dejon Jarreau. Jarreau, similar to Mitchell, has the tenacity on defense, being named AAC Defensive Player of the Year.

Although Houston’s guards are tall, their frontcourt is not, with the tallest player on the team being 6’8. Despite the size, Houston rebounds the ball at an elite rate, ranking third in the country in offensive rebounds at 14.3,  and sixth overall with 40.3.

As mentioned previously, Houston has been suffocating on defense through the first four games. Regardless of opponents and lack of quality compared to the other three teams in the tournament, Houston has controlled one end of the floor.

Houston has given up 56, 60, 46, and 61 points while holding all four teams below 40% from beyond the arc.

The key for the Bears is not giving Houston second chances on the offensive end. With Houston’s elite ability to rebound, it should not be taken for granted, the lack of true height they bring. Baylor is capable of rebounding well, ranking 27th in offensive rebounding at 11.9.

The Houston roster is eerily similar to the Bears, with guards that can score and extraordinary rebounders in the frontcourt. Handling the ball well and limiting second chances for Houston will be major keys for the Bears.

For Houston, limiting out-of-control runs will be crucial. The Bears formula winning over the year has been excellent finishes, with wearing out opponents in the final ten minutes of the game.

After trailing for the majority of the game, Baylor raced past Villanova and winning by a comfortable margin. Same for Arkansas, after the Razorbacks cut the lead to four.

Limiting the runs and using their length to smoother three-point shooters. Villanova forced Baylor to play a different style, with fantastic three-point defense. Houston will need to replicate that success, for a national championship appearance.

Both teams have broken the barriers set before them on the season, with conference championship wins and a Final Four appearance. For Houston, they will be returning, for the first time since 1984, when both schools were apart of the Southwest Conference. The last time the Bears made it this far, the NATO  was incorporated, and the U.S. entered the Korean War.

This game is expected to be a slugfest of two heavyweight defenses and high-end guard play. However, Baylor’s size and enough three-pointers will be the difference maker and the matchup college basketball was unable to get in December, gets renewed.

Prediction: No. 1 Baylor 64, No. 2 Houston 60