Against the spread prediction for Houston Cougars vs Baylor Bears

A matchup decades in the making, Baylor finally ends their 71-year Final Four drought, while Houston hasn’t been in this spot since the Phi Slama Jama days. Both coaches Scott Drew and Kelvin Sampson inherited programs in major turmoil and have now have a chance to let all the hard work pay off and earn a spot in the National Title game.

Baylor cruised through the south region, winning by a combined 57 points with the closest game coming in the Elite 8 as the Bears defeat Arkansas 81-72. The Bears went into half-time down to Villanova but the defense stepped up in the second half propelling them to another double-digit win.

Houston on the other hand was on the brink of defeat against Rutgers, down 58-50 right before the under four timeout. The Cougars finish the game on a 13-2 run to advance to the Sweet 16. In the Elite 8 versus Oregon State, Houston fought off a late second-half run to earn the first spot in the 2021 Final Four.

Depending on the book you use, Baylor opened up laying 4.5 points but the line is changing rapidly. Didn’t take long for bettors to jump on the Big 12 regular season champs as the line has shifted to around -5 to -5.5.

Baylor has been the 2nd best team in college basketball all season long, winners of their first 17 games. After a three-week COVID pause, The Bears came out the gate a little sluggish losing two of their last six games. But since the opening round game against Hartford, they’re back into mid-season form.

Baylor relies heavily on elite guard play, Jared Butler leads the team in scoring with 16.5 per contest. The 6’3 Junior has elite outside range paired with crafty scoring off the dribble, and will easily be the best guard Houston has faced so far this season.

Butler may be the Bears’ best player but Davion Mitchell may be the most important. An athletic guard who plays with his hair fire. Mitchell is the most active defender on the court at all time who tends to force turnovers that lead into easy transition buckets.

Baylor is accustomed to playing a variety of styles. We have seen this team get into plenty of shootouts all season long while playing some low and slow games as well.

"“We can play any style of basketball, “And we can adjust in certain situations, and we can overcome it all.”-Macio Teague"

Houston hangs their hang on the defensive end, ranking 8th in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cougars have held their opponents under 70 points in nine of their last ten games. Guards Quentin Grimes and Marcus Sasser hold down the scoring for the Cougars, with a combined average over 31 points.

The Bears might have had the easiest path to the final four of all time. Defeating Cleveland State in their opening round game, a team that in my own opinion was probably the worst team with a bye in the tourney. Houston then survives against a subpar 10 seeded Rutgers courtesy of a late run in the last two minutes. Rounding it up with two other wins over double-digit seeds. Houston cannot control who their opponents are but giving them all the high praises is a mistake in its own right.

Houston has struggled shooting thus far in March, shooting under 33% from the field. The key has been their rebounding. All five players on the floor crash after every shot-creating second-chance opportunities. But Baylor was just outrebounded by 11 in their win over Arkansas. And let’s be honest, Arkansas might have got the lead down to under five but the Bears never really seemed in danger.

With all that being said, Baylor’s offense is just way too deadly. The combination of Butler, Teague, and Mitchell is unlike anything Houston has seen all year long. I expect the Bears to try to speed this game up as Houston plays at one of the slowest paces in all of the college hoops. Attack the rim while looking for some open shots from behind the arc. 5.5 points may be high for a Final Four game but with the talent and experience of Baylor’s veteran guards, I have no issue laying the points here with the Bears.

Prediction: Baylor -5.5