UCLA Basketball will look to pull off all-time upset over Gonzaga

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - MARCH 30: Tyger Campbell #10 of the UCLA Bruins celebrates with the East Regional Champion trophy after defeating the Michigan Wolverines 51-49 in the Elite Eight round game of the 2021 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium on March 30, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

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Hunter Dickinson Michigan Wolverines UCLA Bruins (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) /

4. Despite their luck, UCLA cannot afford Gonzaga to reach the FT line

Few teams in the NCAA Tournament have been as fortunate – or lucky – at the charity stripe as UCLA has been. That luck has not necessarily been on the offensive end, where the Bruins have been up-and-down by way of both shooting percentages and attempts – with no greater example being that UCLA went 20-25 against Alabama but just 6-7 over Michigan.

Instead, it has been on the defensive end where UCLA has had luck – coincidentally, in those two aforementioned games. Like they have on the offensive end, the Bruins have been rocky in both preventing and allowing teams to make trips to the line, including allowing Michigan State to go a blistering 16-18 in the overtime win in the First Four.

But Alabama and Michigan’s woes on freebies were one of the biggest deciding factors in both team’s losses to the Bruins. Both UCLA and Alabama recorded the exact same amount of attempts of 25 – and while UCLA knocked down a solid 20 free-throws, the Crimson Tide was an abysmal 11-25 (44.0%). A similar shooting performance happened just days later when Michigan shot just 6-11 on freebies.

That is obviously fantastic for UCLA – but the Bruins cannot rely on that luck against a Gonzaga team that ranks 28th in the nation in free-throw attempts with 22.0 a game. The Bulldogs have not had the same success throughout the NCAA Tournament, maintaining an average of 17.75 in four games – but they have gone a stellar 57-71 (80.3%) from the line in those four tilts, which includes a 23-26 showing against Oklahoma.

To put into perspective just how dominant that is: Gonzaga’s four opponents averaged 13.75 attempts, going 36-55 (65.5%) from the charity stripe. It is reasonable to believe that UCLA – a team that ranks in the middle nationally in free-throw attempts at 18.2 – will endure a similar experience, meaning the Bruins will not be able to rely much on the charity stripe offensively. That, in turn, means UCLA cannot afford the Bulldogs to reach the charity stripe – or their luck may ultimately come back to haunt them.

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