2021 NBA Draft: Why every shooting prospect is undervalued

To properly assess NBA Draft prospects, the evolution of the college 3PT line needs to be considered. The shot was introduced prior to the 1986-87 season and remained 19 ft. 9 in. long for 22 years. 3PT% peaked at 35.1% in 2007-08, and (coincidentally?) the arc was extended to 20 ft. 9 in. the following offseason. The impact was seemingly notable, as the sport had its worst shooting campaign since 1998-99 (34.2%).

This distance lasted 11 years, but the NCAA extended it to 22 ft. 1.75 in. before the 2019-20 season. Funny enough, 3PT% had hit the same peak of 35.1% two years prior (2017-18). The change again had a significant impact, with efficiency falling to 33.3% last season, the lowest ever. Things improved slightly this past season (33.8%), but was still the 2nd-worst mark of all time.

While the decline in 3PT% has been discussed, I still think it deserves more attention. If not, several NBA Draft prospects will likely be undervalued.

Shooting 40% from three is impressive, right? Yes, but hitting this mark now — with a longer 3PT arc — is more noteworthy than it was three years ago. Is there a HUGE difference? Perhaps not, but it’s not negligible, and I’m not sure scouts have properly accounted for it. In the same vein, shooting 30% isn’t as unimpressive as it used to be. Unless this is adjusted for, EVERY shooting prospect is undervalued.

Rather than simply looking at a player’s 3PT%, one should examine their performance relative to the rest of the sport. In 2018, a 40% shooting season was 4.9% above the DI average (35.1%). With a longer line this past season, however, 40% was 6.2% better than the average (33.8%). Based solely on this criteria, the +6.2% shooter clearly has the edge.

Among qualifying NCAAB players (min. 40 3PAs) drafted the past three years, 23 have shot 5% or better than the D1 average during their final college seasons. Of these 23, only five shot at least 10% above the average.

+5.0-9.9%: green 

> +10.0%: orange

2018 Class

In the 2018 class, 6/7 players — Jerome Robinson the exception — have translated their shooting to the next level. Each of the six is hitting at least 36.4% from downtown this season.

Aaron Holiday hasn’t been quite the level of shooter these numbers suggested he could be, but his 37.4% career mark isn’t too shabby. Of the seven, the former Bruin had the smallest sample size of 3PAs (107), which likely contributed to his outlier performance.

2019 Class

Of the five “+5%” players in the 2019 class, it’s too early to draw conclusions about most of them  (injuries, limited opportunities, etc.). The one “+10%” player, however — Cameron Johnson — has been a formidable 3-point threat from the get-go for the Phoenix Suns.

2020 Class

Among the eight “+5%” players that have attempted at least 10 threes, six are shooting 37.8% or better. Among the three “+10%”, Aaron Nesmith has struggled to live up to his impressive collegiate season. Like Holiday, Nesmith’s modest 3PAs (115) jumps out as a potential explanation. Both Saddiq Bey and Desmond Bane have shot the ball well, however. In fact, Bane has arguably been one of the better shooters in the NBA this season.

2021 Class

In the upcoming draft class, each of Cade Cunningham, Jared Butler, Chris Duarte, Max Abmas and Tre Mann stand out, with Corey Kispert and Davion Mitchell in a statistical tier above them. While these players have received their fair share of love from scouts, their shooting performances this past season (as discussed) might still be underrated.

Given the longer 3-point line of the last two seasons, Jared Butler’s 41.6% shooting is even more impressive than it may appear on the surface. On the other end of the spectrum, Scottie Barnes’ 27.5% shooting is a bit less worrisome.

Of course, comparing a shooting prospect’s 3PT% to the D1 average isn’t the only way they should be evaluated. As discussed, sample size should be considered, but the type of shot needs to be factored in as well.

Even in the same season with the same 3-point line, 3PT% doesn’t tell the full story. For many players, the vast majority of their 3PAs are “catch-and-shoot“. Some prospects, however, incorporate (more difficult) off-the-dribble looks into their shot diets.

Refer to the “% assisted” column in the above charts to get a sense of the breakdown for each player. It reflects the percentage of made threes that were assisted (i.e. catch-and-shoot attempts). For instance, Corey Kispert is a great shooter, but is his 44.0% shooting (89% assisted) really better than Chris Duarte’s 42.4% shooting (64% assisted)? It’s not clear, but it’s worth thinking about.

The Best Off-The-Dribble Prospects

Off-the-dribble shooting — if done efficiently — is a sought-after skill by NBA teams. It puts a lot of pressure on opposing defenses, particularly in the pick-and-roll. Several 2021 draft prospects have been able to attempt these shots while maintaining impressive 3-point efficiency.

What jumps out from the above chart? No player has a higher “unassisted” percentage than Florida’s Tre Mann. While his 3PA sample size was modest (112), shooting 40.2% from three (69% unassisted) is quite impressive. Cade Cunningham’s 40.0% shooting/55% unassisted clip is notable as well (No. 1 pick worthy?).

Given their healthy mixes of efficiency and unassisted shooting, Davion Mitchell and Max Abmas have arguably have the most impressive profiles. Both have been rising up draft boards since the NCAA Tournament, but perhaps they should be even higher.

When evaluating prospects, the impact of the longer 3PT line needs to be accounted for, along with the type of shot (assisted vs. unassisted). After considering both factors, the 2021 class appears to boast some of the best shooting prospects in recent years.

(Credit to KenPom, basketball-reference and hoop-math for statistics. NBA 3-point percentages are up to date as of 4.10. The 2021 draft class was compiled using various mock drafts).