Murray State Basketball: An early look into a potential 2021-22 mid-major Cinderella

Few programs have enjoyed as illustrious and dominant history at the mid-major level as Murray State Basketball, which has recorded seven NCAA Tournament appearances in this century alone – and now may be primed to be one of college basketball’s top mid-majors in the 2021-22 season.

The Racers are coming off an uncharacteristically lackluster season, finishing 13-13 overall and 10-10 in Ohio Valley play and marking a distinct departure from the three-straight 20-plus win seasons that preceded it.  Outside of a four-game winning streak in February, little went well for Murray State, as the Racers ended the season on a three-game losing streak – including bowing out in the OVC Tournament in an overtime tilt to Jacksonville State.

Team record aside, however, Murray State did feature one of the best cores in the OVC – and one that included a pair of All-OVC First Team selections in KJ Williams and Tevin Brown.  Both ranked in the top 15 in scoring on the conference, with Williams averaging a near double-double of 15.3 points (5th in OVC) and 8.4 rebounds (3rd in OVC).  Brown, meanwhile, has been a force outside, pouring in 14.4 points (11th in OVC) behind a conference-best 2.8 threes per game.

That duo, along with another perimeter, double-digit threat in Chico Carter, Jr. – as well as two threats inside in Demond Robinson and Devin Gilmore, both of whom shot over 63.0% from the floor – comprised one of the deadlier offenses in the country.  Despite ranking slightly above average in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, the Racers were among the nation’s best in 3P% (36.6%, 50th), 2P% (54.5%, 26th), and effective FG% (27th) – while also maintaining a solid defense that limited teams to just 0.86 points per possession.

Although the Racers were among the nation’s worst in relying on the free-throw line – just 13.9% of their points came from freebies – their style of play, which ranks among the slowest in Div. I, allowed for quality shots that resulted in a wildly effective offense.  That, in turn, resulted in wins – in Murray State’s 13 victories, the Racers shot 65.1% from inside the arc and 41.3% from the perimeter.  Their stout defense – which forced off over 18 seconds off the shot clock before an opponent took a shot – limited teams to just 43.8% (2PT) and 27.1% (3PT) clips in wins.

But this was an offense that would regularly go stagnant, especially when teams locked them down inside – in the Racers’ 13 losses, they shot 49.4% on two-pointers.  Minus Murray State’s season-opening win over Greenville, a Div. III school that plays Grinnell – which resulted in MSU scoring 173 points – the Racers recorded 80.8 points in victories, but a woeful 64.9 points in losses.  The inconsistent offense has plagued Murray State more than its defense, considering the Racers have held teams to 72.5 points in losses and have an average margin of defeat of 7.5 points.

Addressing the inconsistencies in the offense is, obviously, the biggest challenge – and a major shift in the roster could be the catalyst of that change.  Matt McMahon, entering his seventh year at the helm of the Racers, has been forced to operate and work around the ongoing, never-ending transfer portal – and, despite some significant losses, the 43-year old has succeeded mightily at bringing in some new faces from mid-major and high-major schools alike.