NBA Draft 2021: Evaluating how different team context’s affected NBA prospects

Sitting on my phone one night, I came across an interesting tweet from Arizona State guard Josh Christopher.

The 2021 NBA Draft prospect was essentially admitting he did not get the opportunity to showcase his playmaking ability as much as he wanted in his lone season in Tempe.

Christopher wasn’t used in the role he felt was beneficial to his game, and he may not be alone. Balancing players’ needs and putting your team in the best position to win is tricky for any college coach. It’s a good sign for the program when a player can make the leap to the next level, but also hurts that current roster. Ultimately, college coaches need to win games more than they need to send players to the pros.

A handful of freshmen saw their draft stock plummet or soar in the past calendar year. That is absolutely attributed to the player and how they performed, but Christopher’s tweet got me thinking it’s important to evaluate the team context as well and how that affected some of the players. I took a look at five different team context’s from this past college season and the role it has had in a player’s performance and development.

Arizona State Sun Devils

When Josh Christopher committed to Arizona State, there were some questions about the fit. The ball-dominant high school superstar was joining two undersized guards in Remy Martin and Alonzo Verge, who also needed the ball to succeed.

Those potential problems reared their head early as the three guards struggled to mesh. Add in the fact that Arizona State lacked front-court depth, and key rotational guys were in and out of the lineup all year, and the Sun Devils struggled. Christopher had a down year given his expectations before missing the last ten games of the season with a back injury.

Christopher went from a potential lottery pick to someone who appears to be trending towards the late first or second round, but I think it’s important to evaluate the context of his team and why he struggled. Martin and Verge each had a usage rate of over 27, dominating touches when they were on the court.

Both players were score first, creating minimal opportunities for catch-and-shoot or cutting. Christopher only had seven possessions off a cut finishing in a shot attempt. Oftentimes when he did cut, he was missed. When Martin or Verge had the ball, the Sun Devils’ weakside offense was standstill and unimaginative.

Christopher took the third-most shots on the team while Marcus Bagley took the fourth most, an uncommonality for two potential first-round picks. Their looks weren’t clean, resulting in lower percentages. Christopher does have a tendency to take bad shots, but some of that may have been frustration. That’s a tendency he’ll need to improve but it’s correctable.

The Sun Devils did play fast, which worked to Christopher’s benefit as he used his strength to dislodge defenders and leaping ability to finish at the rim. But in the halfcourt, Arizona State didn’t capitalize on said strengths. Christopher had limited actions in the pick-and-roll and using dribble handoffs.

Christopher’s struggles can certainly be placed a bit on himself. His jumper is still wonky, oftentimes not having his feet squared to the rim, and his guide hand interferes. Defensively, he gets caught ball-watching a ton and taking ill-advised gambles. But, his tough shot-making, strength, and athleticism are still enticing. They just weren’t totally showcased properly.

Bagley is a top-25 prospect to me. He’s got legitimate size, showed activity as a rebounder, and while he didn’t shoot great from three, his stroke was impressive despite the shot quality. Bagley and Christopher are both better than what their numbers said.