NCAA Basketball: Top 10 “Win Total” bets to avoid for 2021-22 season

1. Gonzaga Bulldogs: Line = 33.5 Wins

Reaching the national title game last season wasn’t a surprise for the Gonzaga program, largely viewed as one of the two teams most likely to reach that round of the NCAA Tournament. However, a dismantling at the hands of eventual champion Baylor was not how many viewed projected the game to play out. It was the 2nd time in five years the program had reached the title game and the expectations for the Zags to remain at the top of the sport aren’t going anywhere despite top talent leaving the program this offseason.

With key backcourt pieces Jalen Suggs, Corey Kispert, and Joel Ayayi moving on to the NBA, there are a lot of holes to fill on the roster from last season. Despite many analysts nationally firmly ranking the Bulldogs in the #1 spot before the season, the talent shuffle in Spokane could lead some to think this season will see a few more hiccups than the Zags 31-1 performance in 20-2021.

A non-conference schedule featuring blue-blood Duke, 2021 Final Four member UCLA, likely top-25 programs Alabama and Texas, as well as power-5 teams Texas Tech and Washington. So why should anyone think this year’s team can or will surpass a line of 33.0 wins when the 2021 team was nearly perfect and only won 31 games?

The return of forward Drew Timme and the offseason addition of #1 overall recruit Chet Holmgren instantly restore confidence in Gonzaga to rattle off win-after-win. This particular frontcourt duo is going to give head coaches and their staff’s nightmares the day before games. Additionally, guards Andrew Nembhard and Rasir Bolton (Iowa State) will be joined by top-40 recruits Hunter Sallis, Nolan Hickman, and sparsely used Dominick Harris. The talent continues to burst at the seams in Spokane.

The youth on this year’s team could again cast doubt on how smoothly Gonzaga will navigate their schedule, but the Bulldogs were forced to cancel four games last year due to issues related to the Covid-19 pandemic. While one of those was a planned meeting of the eventual national title game with Baylor, the other three were almost locks to win against Idaho, Southern, and Tarleton State.

To add to their repetitive success, Gonzaga has only lost three games in conference play over the last five seasons. With a complete schedule back in their favor, more opportunities for Gonzaga equals high likelihood of surpassing last year’s total.

If you have to question how well the Zags will fare next season, you’re betting off ignoring this line altogether and looking elsewhere. They’ll be fine and make another deep tournament run.

Avoid Under 33.5