NCAA Basketball: Top 10 “Win Total” bets to avoid for 2021-22 season
By Ian Mumm
3. Michigan State U22.5 Wins
Last season was rough for many of the elite college basketball programs across the nation. Despite keeping the majority of their roster together prior to the 2020 season, even adding in some promising pieces like Joey Hauser, the Spartans flopped hard. Turnover this offseason could cast further doubt about a rebound season for head coach Tom Izzo, but don’t be so quick to think more trouble is ahead.
Michigan State did well this offseason to at least try to shore up their deficiencies from last season. Notably, at the point guard spot where scoring was inconsistent, the team landed experienced floor general Tyson Walker and his 18.8 PPG last season from Northeastern.
This year’s recruiting class also provides a lot of buffering to the backcourt that will aid Izzo in utilizing the most efficient rotation prior to the season. Freshman Max Christie could instantly spark production on the wings and help ignite small-ball lineups for Michigan State to capitalize on its athleticism.
Playing in the Big Ten is never easy and represents a true gauntlet for any team in the league. However, notable programs in the conference lost star power this offseason and figure to be less of a thorn in the Spartans side this season.
Specifically, teams like Iowa (Luka Garza), Maryland (Aaron Wiggins and Darryl Morsell), Northwestern (Miller Kopp), and Wisconsin (Nate Reuvers and Micah Potter) lose significant top-end production and gave Michigan State a combined six losses last season. The path can’t be expected to be “easy” this season, but conference play could be a little “easier” than it was last season.
To add to the optimism that Izzo will get his guys “right” and returning to a more competitive level this season is his track record with the program. Since he’s taken charge of the team, Izzo has only experienced two instances of successive declines in the win column: 2009-2011 when wins declined from 31, 28, and 19 as well as the three most recent seasons 2019-2021 with wins of 32, 22 and 15. Further evaluation of years following a dip to 20-wins or less, Michigan State has averaged an increase of 7.8 wins the following season.
The Spartans have been a model of consistency and presence at the top of the sport since Izzo has taken over. While last year was a rare setback, there shouldn’t be any hesitation in thinking it will repeat itself. If you need a more recent example of their chances of success, Michigan State lost the play-in game of the NCAA Tournament to eventual Final Four team UCLA by only 6…
Avoid Under 22.5