NCAA Basketball: Top returning players to watch for 2022 NBA Draft
The 2021 NBA Draft class was highlighted by three players who were potentially number one picks in other draft classes, but the strength of the returners helped too with James Bouknight, Franz Wagner, Davion Mitchell, and Corey Kispert going in the top-15.
As it stands today, this year’s returning crop isn’t as top-heavy. Benedict Mathurin and Jaden Ivey are the only two players from that group I would rank in the lottery right now. But at this point last year, Bouknight was the only player I had in that lotto range. Breakout seasons from returners should be expected. There is some depth with this returning class, with around 15 or so players I’d deem draftable.
These evaluations are pretty preliminary. While every player has at least one year of film, a lot of them were in smaller roles. Players like Keegan Murray, Jabari Walker, and Andre Curbelo are three of the guys I’m excited to watch in a bigger role. So look at this as a long-term projection, and not who is going to be the most productive this upcoming season.
1. Jaden Ivey – Purdue – Sophomore – 6’4, 200 lbs – February 2002
Ivey came to West Lafayette as a borderline top 100 four-star prospect and wasn’t expected to contribute much right away. Ivey came off the bench in the first part of the season and was relegated to a minor role. After Sasha Stefanovic was out with Covid-19, Ivey finally got his chance to start and never looked back, averaging 14.7 points, including a career-high 26 in their final game of the season.
Ivey carried that momentum into the U19 World Cup, where he made the All-Star Five team. That upwards trend signifies Ivey is on pace to be a breakout candidate.
Offensively, Ivey wins with his quick burst and change of speed. He’s not an overly creative ball-handler, but he gets to his spots and is great at getting downhill. Once at the rim, he’s a capable finisher, making 62.7% of his shots at the rim.
Ivey still needs to grow as a playmaker, particularly making reads out of the pick-and-roll and not always settling for a jumper. But Ivey gets downhill and into the paint so easily, the reads aren’t that complex. The more pressure he puts on the defense, the easier looks he’ll create. Ivey looked better as a passer in the World Cup.
The jumper is the swing piece in determining his offensive ceiling. was better in the last six games of college, going 34%. He also has soft touch and a solid free throw percentage, indicating he can shoot. Rewatching all of his attempts, Ivey’s percentage was hurt by having to take some tough end-of-shot clock threes. He also had plenty of good looks just rim out.
But there are some mechanical things he can work on. On catch-and-shoot jumpers, Ivey has a lower release point and doesn’t always elevate on his jumper, making it easier for defenses to contest. Off the dribble, Ivey does elevate but has trouble finding balance. These are correctable though, and we should see an increase this season, even with him expected to take tougher shots. Ivey doesn’t need to be a Duncan Robinson-level sniper, but hitting 35%+ of his threes would be beneficial.
Ivey could add some strength, but I wouldn’t want him to simultaneously lose his lateral movement skills. He’s a threat in the passing lanes and reads the court well on that end.
Ivey is in line to become the lead guy on a very good Purdue team. If the jumper hits and teams can’t go under, he could be in line for a huge year. All-American honors and becoming a lottery pick are in play.