Baylor Basketball: 2021-22 season preview and outlook for Bears

Starters

After featuring one of the deadliest backcourts in the country, the Bears will be forced to reload their starting lineup with an assortment of bench players and newcomers, all of whom will be expected to produce in the wake of Jared Butler, MaCio Teague, Davion Mitchell, and Mark Vital’s departures to the professional level.

Replacing Mitchell may have been the most daunting task facing Drew and his staff this past offseason, considering the Bears had no established returning floor general off the bench for a star guard that averaged 13.5 points (on a 50.0% shooting clip) and 5.8 assists in the NCAA Tournament – but the acquisition of Arizona’s James Akinjo should alleviate most concerns.

Akinjo comes with his own potential luggage, considering this will be his third stop in three seasons – but the 6-1 guard impressed in 26 starts for the Wildcats, averaging near identical marks to Mitchell with 15.6 points and 5.4 assists.

He will have to mightily improve his percentages inside the arc, where he recorded a woeful 36.0% clip – but contrarily, Akinjo does maintain one of the deadliest clips from beyond the arc, ranking among the top 200 nationally (40.8%).  Additionally, Akinjo is an astute defender, drawing nearly five fouls per game in 40 minutes and earning a steal on 2.4% of possessions.

Where Baylor’s experience shines through is in its shooting guard and small forward positions, where Butler and Teague will be replaced by Adam Flagler and Matthew Mayer, matching their backup roles from the previous campaign.  Butler and Teague’s departures leave cosmic holes in the Bears’ production, considering both were the squad’s leading scorers, and have been – along with Mitchell – the biggest cogs in Baylor’s ascent to the summit of college basketball in the past two seasons.

Flagler should inherit shooting guard duties after a stellar first season in Waco, after spending the 2018-19 season at Presbyterian.  The 6-3 guard tipped off his time at Baylor with authority, ripping off five-straight double-digit performances off the bench – which included an 18-point showing against Illinois – and, despite some fluctuating showcases, continued to impress until the the end of the NCAA Tournament, notching 16 points against Villanova and 13 in the title victory over Gonzaga.

Mayer did not have nearly as extensive of a role as Flagler, supplying seven less minutes per game – but still playing nearly 16 minutes across all 30 games.  At 6-9, Mayer has shown himself to be an athletic freak on numerous occasions, courtesy of a 55.4% shooting clip inside, a handful of double-digit efforts – including a career-best 19-point showing against Oklahoma State – and a collection of absurd dunks.  Mayer’s three years at Baylor have all shown gradual improvements, meaning this campaign should yield his finest results yet.

Like Akinjo with Mitchell’s spot, the hole left by Vital’s departure was also one that could not be easily filled by someone on Baylor’s roster.  Instead, five-star recruit Kendall Brown – the fourth-highest ranked recruit in program history, according to 247Sports – will most likely be implemented into the starting lineup immediately.  Brown is an incredibly athletic, 6-8 wing whose reputation as a stout defender and blocker, as well as an aggressive driver, will make him an extremely valuable asset that can be interchanged with Mayer.

The center position is the lone spot that does not have a gap left by a departure – but there is a possibility that a change happens.  Although post play was a seismic question mark for the Bears entering the 2020-21 campaign after Freddie Gillespie’s graduated, Flo Thamba was able to supply steady minutes in 30 starts, contributing 3.6 points and 4.0 rebounds in 15 minutes per game.

But it may be reasonable to believe that Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua – who scored in all 29 games in which he played in last season, and who contributed key minutes and momentum off the bench – may find himself as the starting center moving forward.  Tchamwa Tchatchoua, in his first campaign with Baylor after transferring from UNLV, hit the ground running, tallying double-digits in five of his first seven games – and capped off his year in style, recording 11 points in the Bears’ NCAA Tournament win over Houston, and finishing the season with averages of 6.4 points and 5.0 caroms.

With the potential exception of the center position, this will be a new look starting five for a Baylor team that remained, for the most part, steady throughout the past few seasons.  But the Bears’ proven reserves – who will now be counted on as starters – should be enough to keep Drew’s program alive in the Big 12.