NBA Draft 2022: Early observations heading into 2021-22 NCAA Basketball season

With just under two weeks to go until the return of NCAA basketball, I decided to give my first (not so brief overview of the 2022 NBA Draft class).

Top of the draft

For the most part, there seems to be a consensus amongst the experts about the top three players in this class; Paolo Banchero (Duke), Chet Holmgren (Gonzaga), and Jaden Hardy (G-League Ignite). Unlike last season, there isn’t a true consensus No. 1 pick, but I feel strongly about Banchero being the top prospect heading into the college season.

Banchero is built like a back-to-the-basket center at 6’10, 250 pounds, but he’s got a modern game. He spent his senior season playing for BFL Prep in the Grind Session, and it was a fascinating developmental case. Banchero could have simply posted up, backed everyone down, and been dominant, but he chose to showcase some of his ball skills. He spent a fair amount of time on the perimeter, operating as the primary creator. He also showed his versatility as a shooter, attempting and making a plethora of pull-up jumpers.

Banchero’s passing and handling were also impressive, especially factoring in his size. Is he going to be a primary at the NBA or even college level? Probably not. But, there are ways to utilize his ball skills. Whether that’s out of post-ups, dribble handoffs, or short roll situations, he’s a very versatile offensive big.

Defense would be my biggest Banchero concern right now. He doesn’t have elite length, so if he’s going to play center at the next level, rim protection would be a concern. He’s a good leaper, but not the best lateral athlete.

At Duke, he’ll start at the four next to a more traditional five, Mark Williams (who’s also a very serious prospect). Buying the jumper, I think the spacing will be fine. He’ll also be able to post up fours, and attack closeouts. Banchero will spend time at the five too, so NBA teams will get a look at how he plays both spots. He should be one of the most productive freshmen in the country.

Holmgren, who finished high school as the No. 1 player, has proven he’s more than just a Youtube sensation. He had a strong senior season, highlighted by outdueling Emoni Bates on ESPN.

He carried that over to this summer where he had a terrific showing at the U19 World Cup, where he won MVP honors. Holmgren is an undeniably good shot-blocker. His absurd length mitigates his lack of size.

Holmgren is the superior defensive prospect when compared to Banchero, but I think he lacks an offensive ceiling. He will be able to add strength, but he doesn’t project as someone teams can run offense through. He’ll be a stretch big and can use his gravity to unlock passing lanes, but I’m unsure if he can ever be a 15 point per game scorer in the NBA. Banchero has more star upside on offense and that’s why I give him the nod.

Hardy is a bit more of a mystery, with less film on him entering the season. He’s in the Jalen Green mold of a microwave scoring two-guard, with elite pull-up shooting. He also had some good showings on nationally televised games. Hardy needs to improve as a playmaker, but playing with G-League Ignite will give him the teammates and spacing necessary. I had similar concerns with Green and he became a more willing passer. I have Hardy No. 2, slightly above Holmgren because of the offensive upside. He’s in that mold of off-ball guards that can carry an offense.