The battle for No. 4 (and a word on centers with gaps in their game)
After the top three, there’s no consensus and a tier of players vying for that spot. The two most common names are Jalen Duren (Memphis) and Yannick Nzosa (International). Both players are centers, with interesting physical builds, and definite strengths (and weaknesses).
After dominating the Nike EYBL, Duren made the move to reclassify up and commit to Memphis. Per the Memphis pro day measurements, he’s 6’11 with a 7’5 wingspan. His long arms make him a plus lob threat, and he has some passing chops to use out of the post or dribble handoffs. But Duren’s complete offensive package is lacking. His low post-game lags right now and he is a non-shooter. Those higher on Duren project him as a Bam Adebayo type of player.
But projecting someone to be one of the best swiss army knife bigs in the world, means you’re banking on a ton of growth. I do like Duren, I just question how much value a sub-seven-foot, rim-running five has in the NBA. I expect him to be very productive at Memphis, but I wonder how much growth in his game he’ll show.
If Holmgren is the best defensive big in this class, then Nzosa is 1b. He’s got elite length to go with good instincts. He’s blocking 2.6 shots per 36 minutes in six Liga ACB games this season.
Nzosa’s offensive game is extremely limited. He projects as a lob threat and play finisher, but his lack of strength makes him almost average in that regard. He’s tried expanding his game this season to the perimeter, and the results have been questionable. He’s shooting 31% from the field and has a negative assist to turnover ratio. Nzosa will defend at the NBA level, but his offense lags so far behind right now, it’s hard to feel good about him as a top-five prospect.
I like aspects of both Duren and Nzosa’s game, but the large holes in their game and the lack of upside in one-way centers would have me skeptical of picking them in the top five. I have Duren in the 7-10 range right now, and Nzosa 12-15.