NBA Draft 2022: Early observations heading into 2021-22 NCAA Basketball season
Big Shooters
My next tier of players features four wing and forward shooters: Jabari Smith (Auburn), Caleb Houstan (Michigan), Patrick Baldwin Jr. (U-W Milwaukee), and to a degree Adrian Griffin Jr. (Duke).
All four of these players are in the same tier for me. I have Smith the highest right now given his potential two-way impact, ability to shoot off the dribble and use that gravity to leverage advantages. His pairing with Walker Kessler at Auburn should be fun to monitor as both bigs have fun skillsets that should benefit each other.
Houstan is more of a wing but should see time at the three and four for Michigan. At Montverde Academy, he was used as a catch-and-shoot player. He got some on-ball reps for Canada in the U19’s, but those results were mixed. Given his shooting versatility, size, and defense, he’s a safe bet to be an impactful player. I think Houstan has the highest floor of any prospect outside the top three.
The Caleb Houstan appeal in 13 seconds. Uses his length for a dig at the nail, drains a transition three on the other end. Gonna be fun to watch how Juwan Howard deploys him on both ends. pic.twitter.com/oUjHfRL4Bt
— Brandon Simberg (@BrandonSimberg) September 29, 2021
Baldwin stands at 6’9 and is the best shooter of the bunch. He’ll be an interesting case study at UW-Milwaukee, where he should theoretically dominate against inferior competition. Some on-ball reps will be positive for his development, even if he projects in an off-ball role at the next level. Even if he’s not as productive as some hope he will be, as long as he continues to make shots, he should end up as a lottery pick.
Griffin Jr. is also super interesting. He missed his senior season recovering from an injury and will miss the beginning of this season with a knee injury. Griffin is the worst shooter of the bunch, but he showed impressive versatility in that regard the last time we saw him as a junior. He also reportedly spent a large portion of that missed senior season working on his jumper with the Toronto Raptors, where his father is an assistant coach.
Three pretty sweet blocks from 2021 Duke commit AJ Griffin in the same half. Really good defender. pic.twitter.com/FFa8nHgKmu
— Brandon Simberg (@BrandonSimberg) September 11, 2020
Of this group, Griffin Jr. has the best chance to move into the top three. He’s one of the best athletes in the class when healthy, incredibly strong, and fits the description of a modern wing. He could also disappoint and slip, especially given the medical concerns. But there’s too much upside to be low on him.