NCAA Basketball: Potential value bets for 2021-22 National Player of the Year
By Ian Mumm
Super Freshmen – Chet Holmgren (Gonzaga), Paolo Banchero (Duke) +1000
The Naismith Player of the Year award has very rarely been given to freshmen since its inception in 1969. Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, and Zion Williamson are the only three players in its 60-year history who have been able to take home the crown. Each was transcendent talents that were refined enough to convert their skillsets into immediate stardom from the moment they stepped foot on campus.
However, the recency these players have been able to win the award shows recruits are entering college more ready to become vital pieces of college rotations. This is readily apparent with incoming freshman and assured stars Chet Holmgren of Gonzaga and Paolo Banchero of Duke. The number one and two players in the 2021 recruiting class are ideal representations of modern frontcourt players and dynamic play on the offensive end of the floor.
Each has the capability to stretch the floor comfortably from the perimeter, handle the ball full-court, defend the rim with superior athleticism and pull in rebounds as well as anyone else in the nation. The benefit for Banchero is he will be the primary offensive option for the Blue Devils and can easily approach the 20 points per game mark. As evidenced by his 29-point, 12-rebound performance in the team’s ‘secret scrimmage’ against Villanova Banchero is ready to compete at the highest levels nationally.
Holmgren on the other hand will have to contend with splitting the offensive workload with Drew Timme and a gaggle of guards for the Bulldogs to make the same impact. Given the ‘unicorn’ moniker though, the Minnesota-native has the capacity to pour in production in nearly any category which can help boost his stock towards player of the year recognition. Holmgren already proved over the summer during the FIBA U19 World Cup, which included Mike Miles (TCU), Jaden Ivey (Purdue), Pat Baldwin Jr. (Milwaukee), and more, that he can thrive on a team full of collegiate stars.
The benefit for both Banchero and Holmgren towards achieving this reward is neither will likely have to exceed the ‘soft’ threshold of 20 points per game this season to walk away with the reward. Their skillsets are fully encompassing and have the power to produce elite levels in multiple categories that will help to push them to the top. Freshman or not, these two players can come in and do damage. Getting either one at 10-1 odds is bonus!