NCAA Basketball: 4 best bets for opening night games of 2021-22 season
By Ian Mumm
The NCAA Basketball season is finally here and with it, nightly action betting on games comes with it! The opening night slate of games is very large and features notable matchups including the Champion’s Classic with potentially resurgent blue-blood programs. However, the sheer magnitude of the entire betting slate can leave many bettors with too many options for finding a great number to ride and end up on the wrong side of the action.
Using odds provided by WynnBET, I have scoured the entire slate and have found several options worth digging deeper on. These bets not only have good value associated with their lines but also have data backing up the stances I outline. Check out the four best bets I’ve pinpointed for opening night.
Bowling Green Falcons @ Western Carolina Catamounts – O151.5
Nothing better than a potential barnburner on opening night! The line for this game was set at a hefty 151.5 points between the Catamounts and Falcons and for good reason. Bowling Green and Western Carolina were much more offensive-oriented programs last season and loved to get up-and-down the floor ranking as top-80 teams in pace. While this aspect of each team’s style resulted in large points on the board, these combatants deviated from how they chased points.
Bowling Green posted the 2nd most shot attempts in the nation last season and truly embodied the “more possessions, more attempts, more points” philosophy. This approach didn’t necessarily bread efficiency for the program, but the team was balanced enough to overcome this part of their performance. Led by Justin Turner’s 19.3 points per game, the Falcons relied on a heavy-guard rotation to ignite their offense. Although the team lost Turner this offseason, the rest of the guard rotation returns and all featured reliable production when on the floor.
In his place, Bowling Green was able to land multiple double-digit scorers in Samari Curtis (Evansville – 10.1 PPG), Myron Gordon (Samford – 15.6 PPG), and Brenton Mills (Binghamton – 13.9 PPG) to compensate and even elevate the offensive potential this year.
As a result, the Falcons should again trot out a balanced backcourt and their sheer number of possessions should help this year’s team to find its groove. Even if things aren’t running optimally, Bowling Green is strong at the free throw line and was 23rd in the nation during the 2020-21 season in offensive rebounds per game increasing 2nd-chance opportunities to put points on the board.
Western Carolina on the other hand still managed to reach the mid-70s in scoring on a nightly basis, but it wasn’t due to the en masse shot attempt method used by their opponent. The Catamounts were a very efficient offense last season piecing together a field goal percentage within the top-100 nationally. The program featured a quartet of guards reaching double-digits and spreading the ball around to make the most of their possessions.
An offseason coaching change sees Winthrop assistant coach Jason Gray take the helm of the program, while much of the team’s scoring prowess simultaneously depart. However, at Winthrop Gray helped boost the offensive firepower during his two seasons with the team. He carries that over to a Catamounts team that has been able to restock the cupboards well each offseason despite high turnover.
With the team’s preseason scrimmage completed, Gray’s vision for the program replicates what fans have seen in recent season with a slight tweak: efficiency in all facets with increased pace to find more opportunities.
As if the threat of a points parade by these offenses wasn’t enough, neither the Catamounts nor Falcons are particularly strong defensively. Both were 246th in overall defensive rating or worse (BGSU – 246th, WCU – 299th) last season creating concerns that each side will have ample opportunities to let the ball fly and match their true style of play.
Pace is a factor in those results, but these teams have not been effective in contesting shots to truly dominate their opponents. As a result, Bowling Green and Western Carolina surpassed this total in over 50% of their outings last year (BGSU – 16/26 [61.5%], WCU – 14/27 [51.9%]) bringing in confidence this early season total has not hit the nail just yet.
Bet the total O151.5