Iowa Basketball: 2021-22 season preview and outlook for Hawkeyes

Schedule

If there is absolutely one guarantee in what is otherwise an intriguing season filled with question marks for Iowa, it is that the Hawkeyes – barring a meltdown – will start the season at 6-0, and should head into the bulk of Big Ten play in January with an overwhelmingly positive winning record; albeit, at the very least, not an impressive one.

Of Iowa’s 11 non-conference games, eight come against sub-220 KenPom teams – and all eight warrant at least a 97% win probability for the Hawkeyes, per KenPom.  Two of the three exceptions are also considered to be potential Iowa victories, with a December 9th in-state duel with Iowa State and a December 18th battle in Sioux Falls against Utah State both on tap after a pair of Big Ten bouts.

The leftover non-conference game comes on November 29th, when the Hawkeyes will visit the Virginia Cavaliers for just the fourth meeting between the two programs ever, and the first since 2016.  Iowa’s meeting with Virginia will kick off a five-game stretch that will ultimately determine the Hawkeyes’ legitimacy – just days after meeting the Cavaliers, Iowa will head to Purdue on December 3rd, before hosting Illinois just three days later, and dueling with Iowa State and Utah State afterwards.

Those games with Purdue and Illinois, both teams projected to rank among the best in the Big Ten, will speak volumes about Iowa and how much of a potential threat the Hawkeyes can actually be in the conference – but this is a team that could realistically win 20 games.  A number of their conference games in January should be winnable, including home bouts with Maryland, Indiana, and Penn State, as well as road games at Minnesota and Rutgers.

A January 27th rematch with Purdue will mark the start of a trek where the Hawkeyes will meet a handful of the Big Ten’s top teams, however – meetings with Ohio State and Michigan await Iowa in February, while the Hawkeyes will close out the regular season with dreaded road showdowns at Michigan and Illinois.

Per KenPom’s data, the Hawkeyes are projected to go 10-10 in conference – which should be more than good enough to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, no matter the results of the Big Ten tourney, which begins on March 9th.